[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 052355
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED MAR 05 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN AFRICAN CONTINENT AND A RELATIVELY STRONG 1030
MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 38N23W. GALE FORCE N-NE WINDS ARE
OCCURRING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOROCCO COAST FROM 29N-32N E
OF 14W. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW WARNING CRITERIA BY
06/0300 UTC AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES. SEE LATEST METEO-FRANCE METAREA II HIGH SEAS FORECAST
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N11W TO
01N27W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
01N27W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 37W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS S OF 05N BETWEEN 15W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF WITH ENERGY
FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF 30N99W THAT CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE
NW GULF WATERS THIS EVENING. AS OF 05/2100 UTC...THE TROUGHING
SUPPORTS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ANALYZED AS A 1010 MB LOW
CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF NEAR 25N94W. MOSAIC DOPPLER
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS OCCURRING GENERALLY N OF 24N BETWEEN 83W-95W. WITH THE LOW
FORECAST TO MOVE E-NE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW EAST-NORTHEAST TO 28N87W AND
CONNECTS TO AN EXISTING STATIONARY FRONT ANCHORED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA ENTERING THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF WATERS
NEAR THE TAMPA BAY REGION. THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A SHOT OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY THAT IS
NEEDED TO EJECT THE LOW NE TOWARDS THE BIG BEND REGION OF
FLORIDA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS IT GRADUALLY DEEPENS AND
CROSSES NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
BASIN THIS EVENING AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT W OF 66W. THE ONLY
NOTABLE AREA OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS N
OF 17N BETWEEN 77W-81W...INCLUDING JAMAICA...THE ADJACENT
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF CUBA...AND PORTIONS OF INLAND EASTERN
CUBA. FARTHER EAST...REMAINING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
EXTENDS OVER THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N61W HOWEVER WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT RESULTING
IN CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS. ONLY A FEW ISOLATED LOW-
TOPPED SHOWERS ARE NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF WESTERN PUERTO
RICO...THE MONA PASSAGE...AND EASTERN HISPANIOLA. OTHERWISE...
TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS
GENERALLY IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS...20 TO 25 KT...NOTED IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY ONLY A FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE
NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE ISLAND. WHILE THIS ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THURSDAY...OVERALL
TRANQUIL WEATHER IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE DUE LARGELY TO WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND THE ASSOCIATED DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY NEAR 34N80W THAT SUPPORTS A 1015 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR
32N76W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM THE LOW TO 31N72W AND
BECOMES STATIONARY TO 30N69W. A COLD FRONT ALSO EXTENDS FROM THE
LOW SW TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 28N80W. MOSAIC DOPPLER
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
OCCURRING OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE SW NORTH ATLC GENERALLY
NORTH OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 26N69W TO THE
FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N81W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
DIFFLUENT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ARE MAXIMIZED
OVER THIS AREA. FARTHER EAST...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH
ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N54W. THE RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC AS WELL ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB
HIGH CENTERED EAST OF THE AZORES NEAR 38N23W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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