[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051734
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED MAR 05 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 30N-
32N E OF 13W THROUGH TODAY. PLEASE SEE METEO FRANCE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 7N12W AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N14W TO 3N18W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N28W 1N39W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR
NEAR 44W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 90/120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 17W-25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING S OVER THE W GULF WITH A SHORTWAVE
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO 24N90W. THE
COMPLEX SURFACE FEATURES AT 05/1500 UTC CONSISTS OF FRONT
EXTENDING ACROSS FLORIDA OVER CAPE CANAVERAL TO JUST N OF TAMPA
BAY CONTINUING TO 28N84W WHERE IT BECOMES A WARM FRONT ALONG
28N87W TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 25N92W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
S ALONG 22N93W TO S MEXICO NEAR 18N93W. A WIND SHIFT DEPICTED AS
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N90W TO OVER S MEXICO NEAR
19N92W. THE SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF THE WARM FRONT TO 24N
BETWEEN 85W-91W. SCATTERED SHOWERS DOT THE AREA N OF THE WARM
FRONT TO INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE DOTTING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. THE LOW WILL DRAG
THE FRONT EASTWARD AS IT MOVES TO NE GULF TONIGHT AND INTO THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND THU NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE FRONT
WILL THEN MOVE OUT OF THE GULF EARLY FRI. SURFACE RIDGE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FRI AND SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS
N OVER THE W ATLC. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
SHOW VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN WITH
SOME MOISTURE MOVING IN OVER THE CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. SOUTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW OVER THE W CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS N OF 16N ACROSS CUBA BETWEEN 77W-81W. EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS FROM 15N-19N
BETWEEN 67W-71W INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA S OF
11N W OF 80W. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA WHILE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN THU NIGHT AND STALL FROM CENTRAL CUBA
TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS FRI NIGHT.

HISPANIOLA...
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON OVER MOST OF THE ISLAND
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC E OF 70W WHERE ISOLATED
SHOWERS GENERATED BY THE TRADE WINDS ARE DEVELOPING. WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI GIVING THE ISLAND FAIR
CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE THU/EARLY FRI WHEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL THEN AGAIN MOVE OVER THE ISLAND INCREASING SHOWERS MAINLY
OVER THE WESTERN PORTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC AT 05/1500 UTC FROM A 1016 MB LOW
OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 31N79W TO ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL. A WIND SHIFT DEPICTED AS A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N77W TO 27N80W. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 45 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO INLAND OVER THE SE
CONUS. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE N/CENTRAL ATLC DRAPES A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE
REGION NEAR 32N64W AND CONTINUES ALONG 29N70W TO THE 1016 MB LOW
OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH NEAR THE AZORES
AND A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 28N54W. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH TONIGHT. A SECOND LOW CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
MOVE INTO THE W ATLC BY FRI. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND
FROM 31N72W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY LATE FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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