[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051155
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED MAR 05 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...GALE-FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF
MOROCCO...

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST GRAND LARGE
FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE GALE-FORCE WINDS THAT ARE IN THE
AGADIR AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY...ALONG THE COAST OF MOROCCO.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 11N15W TO
9N16W AND 6N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N17W TO 5N18W...TO THE
EQUATOR ALONG 32W...TO 2S37W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 4N BETWEEN 13W AND
30W. SCATTERED STRONG IN CLUSTERS FROM 1N TO 2N WITHIN 30 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 48W...AND FROM 2N TO 3N BETWEEN 50W AND 51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 2N TO THE
EAST OF 3W...AND WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 5N51W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF
50W...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING THROUGH
LOUISIANA...THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND SOUTHERN
MEXICO ALONG 100W. THIS FEATURE IS FOLLOWED BY A SECOND MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT CURRENTLY IS MOVING
THROUGH EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS.

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR
32N65W...JUST TO THE WEST OF BERMUDA...TO 30N72W...TO FLORIDA
NEAR 27N81W...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N87W. THE FRONT
BECOMES STATIONARY FROM 26N87W TO 26N92W...TO A 1013 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24N93W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
THE 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 19N96W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 87W AND
91W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE
28N81W 24N90W 19N91W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N50W 27N60W 26N70W 25N80W. A STATIONARY
FRONT IS INLAND IN MEXICO ALONG 19N97W 26N100W.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...AS A RIDGE...HAS BUILT TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ALONG THE
COASTS/COASTAL PLAINS OF TEXAS AND MEXICO...TO 20N.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT ALL THE PLATFORM SITES/
ICAO STATIONS. LOW CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING MORE AND MORE WITH TIME
AT THE ICAO STATIONS KATP AND KIPN.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE ENTIRE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS
AND COASTAL AREAS OF LOUISIANA. DRIZZLE WAS REPORTED IN THE
CORPUS CHRISTI AREA. LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED IN THE GREATER
HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOW
CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE AREA FROM LOUISIANA TO ALABAMA.
COMPARATIVELY LOWER VISIBILITIES ARE IN PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAIN ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM PERRY WESTWARD. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER
THE FLORIDA COAST FROM BROOKSVILLE TO PUNTA GORDA. THE
VISIBILITIES IN THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE GREATER TAMPA
METROPOLITAN AREA RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 MILES WITH FOG. THE
VISIBILITY IN PUNTA GORDA IS 1 MILE OR LESS WITH FOG. A MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVERS NAPLES.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE COLOMBIA COAST THAT IS
NEAR 10N76W...ACROSS JAMAICA AND BEYOND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...
AND BEYOND THE BAHAMAS.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE
TRADE WIND FLOW...MOSTLY TO THE NORTH OF 13N TO THE EAST OF
73W...TO THE NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 74W AND 83W...AND ELSEWHERE TO
THE WEST OF 78W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N84W IN PANAMA BEYOND 6N90W IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS MOVES FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTHEAST OF HONDURAS AND TO THE EAST OF
NICARAGUA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS
TO 9 FEET FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES HISPANIOLA. MIDDLE
LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW ALSO CROSSES HISPANIOLA... ASSOCIATED
WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BAHAMAS.

CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW
LOW CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA...SANTIAGO...AND IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY-TO-
WESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH A CARIBBEAN SEA
RIDGE...FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS. WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE TIME PERIOD...
WITH THE SAME RIDGE...JUST SHIFTED SLIGHTLY IN ITS ORIENTATION.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT EASTERLY AND
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...ASSOCIATED WITH
AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT STARTS TO THE EAST OF
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BAHAMAS...AND THAT ENDS NEAR 21N60W.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EASTERLY-TO-
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT WILL START IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN AT A DISTANCE OF 250 NM TO 300 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND EVENTUALLY MOVE
TO A LOCATION THAT IS ABOUT 600 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WEAKENING MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N45W TO 24N50W. A BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES TO 13N54W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 32N49W 28N51W
24N52W.  CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS...TO THE NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN
44W AND 53W...AND FROM 17N TO 26N BETWEEN 40W AND 52W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 27N59W TO 26N69W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND ANDROS
ISLAND...TO 24N82W IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THIS ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW IS TO THE WEST OF THE 32N49W 28N51W 24N52W SURFACE
TROUGH.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 43W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH
OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 40W.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 34N6W IN MOROCCO...TO A 1029 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 36N24W...CONTINUING THROUGH 32N33W
AND 31N38W...TO 27N43W...AND TO 20N50W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net