[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 050605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED MAR 05 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SIERRA LEONE NEAR
8N13W TO 6N14W AND 4N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N17W TO
1N24W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 36W...CURVING TO 3S41W ALONG
THE COAST OF BRAZIL. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 1N TO 2N BETWEEN 24W AND 26W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 5N BETWEEN 13W AND
30W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 4N FROM
40W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF
60W...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING THROUGH EASTERN
TEXAS...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS OFF THE
COAST OF THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...TO MEXICO NEAR 20N100W.

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 34N60W...TO
JUST TO THE NORTH OF BERMUDA. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE
AREA THAT IS JUST TO THE NORTH OF BERMUDA...TO A 1016 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N70W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
THE 1016 MB LOW CENTER TO 31N74W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES
FROM 31N74W TO FLORIDA NEAR 28N81W...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR 26N87W. THE FRONT BECOMES WARM FROM 26N87W...TO A GULF OF
MEXICO 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N93W. A COLD
FRONT CONTINUES FROM 25N93W TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 20N96W.
A STATIONARY FRONT IS IN INTERIOR MEXICO FROM 17N96W TO 28N101W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE
LINE 32N60W 25N74W...AND 27N82W 19N95W.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...AS A RIDGE...IS BUILDING TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ALONG THE
COASTS/COASTAL PLAINS OF TEXAS AND MEXICO...TO 20N.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT ALL THE PLATFORM SITES/
ICAO STATIONS. ONLY STATION KIPN IS NOT REPORTING A LOW CLOUD
CEILING...BUT WITH A VISIBILITY OF 2 MILES AND FOG.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE ENTIRE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS
AND COASTAL AREAS OF LOUISIANA. LIGHT RAIN IS BEING OBSERVED IN
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...INCLUDING AROUND THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN ARE BEING
REPORTED IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...TO THE
NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE PANAMA CITY FLORIDA METROPOLITAN AREA.
A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED IN BROOKSVILLE FLORIDA...
AND IN THE FORT MYERS METROPOLITAN AREA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 28N82W...TO A 1012 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N92.5W...THEN A COLD FRONT TO
NEAR 20N97W. EXPECT NORTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS
TO 9 FEET WITHIN 120 NM TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT AND 1012 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER. EXPECT ALSO NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET WITHIN 120 NM TO THE NORTH OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT TO THE WEST OF 87W.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE COLOMBIA COAST THAT IS
NEAR 10N76W...ACROSS JAMAICA AND BEYOND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...
AND BEYOND THE BAHAMAS.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE
TRADE WIND FLOW...TO THE EAST OF 70W...TO THE NORTH OF 13N
BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...FROM JAMAICA NORTHWARD ACROSS CUBA TO
ANDROS ISLAND BETWEEN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND 82W...AND
ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 80W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N84W IN PANAMA TO 10N86W AT
THE PANAMA COAST...BEYOND 8N88W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS MOVES FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN...ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO THE SOUTH OF
HONDURAS...INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS
8 TO 9 FEET FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W. EXPECT ALSO
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET
ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES HISPANIOLA. MIDDLE
LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW ALSO CROSSES HISPANIOLA... ASSOCIATED
WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BAHAMAS.

CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS...BROKEN MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...AND LIGHT
RAIN ARE BEING REPORTED IN PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING
REPORTED IN SANTO DOMINGO...PUERTO PLATA...AND IN SANTIAGO.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY-TO-
WESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH A CARIBBEAN SEA
RIDGE...FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS. WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE TIME PERIOD...
WITH THE SAME RIDGE...JUST SHIFTED SLIGHTLY IN ITS ORIENTATION.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT EASTERLY AND
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...ASSOCIATED WITH
AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT STARTS NEAR THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE BAHAMAS...AND THAT ENDS NEAR 22N61W. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EASTERLY-TO-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER THAT WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT
IS AT LEAST 300 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N46W TO
20N50W...AND 12N55W. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N49W TO
31N50W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 31N50W TO 27N51W AND
24N52W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS...TO THE NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 43W
AND 54W...AND FROM 18N TO 23N BETWEEN 48W AND 51W.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS
TO THE WEST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N58W...TO
27N66W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND ANDROS ISLAND...TO 24N81W IN THE
FLORIDA STRAITS.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 42W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH
OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 40W.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 34N6W IN MOROCCO...TO A 1031 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 37N23W...CONTINUING THROUGH 32N33W
TO 29N42W 22N45W...AND TO 13N46W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N50W
TO 25N52W. EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8
FEET TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT TO 57W. A
SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND
SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN 43W AND 59W. A
THIRD AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N73W
TO 28N82W. EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8
FEET TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE WEST OF 71W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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