[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061753
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU MAR 06 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A GALE IS FORECASTED FOR THE E ATLC N OF 30N BETWEEN 22W-35W
STARTING FRI MORNING. PLEASE SEE METEO FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST
FOR MORE DETAILS.

A GALE IS FORECASTED TO BEGIN SAT MORNING N OF 30N WITHIN 150 NM
E OF FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N71W TO 22N77W. PLEASE SEE
THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT01
KNHC OR THE OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 7N12W AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N18W TO 2N25W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N31W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 36W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM THE EQUATOR TO THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 11W-21W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N
BETWEEN 21W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHARP UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE GULF WITH AN UPPER
LOW MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS UPPER
TROUGH IS SUPPORTING AT 06/1500 UTC A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 27N87W
WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING S ALONG 22N90W 20N93W TO INLAND OVER
S MEXICO TO 17N94W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW E OVER THE
FLORIDA NEAR 28N83W. A WIND SHIFT PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS E OF THE
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 26N86W ALONG 22N88W 20N90W TO 16N92W.
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
OVER THE E GULF TO ENHANCE SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS N OF 25N E OF 85W TO OVER SE CONUS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60/75 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH S OF 25N. A SURFACE RIDGE IS
BUILDING S FROM THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES OVER MEXICO AND THE W
GULF. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AND STABLE AIR
ALOFT MOVING OVER THE NW GULF IN WAKE OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF W OF THE
FRONT WITH THE SKIES BEGINNING TO CLEAR ALONG THE TEXAS COAST.
THE LOW WILL MOVE NE TOWARD THE FLORIDA BIG BEND THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT REACHING SW TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GULF EARLY FRI.
SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
THROUGH SAT. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE W GULF SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING A RIDGE
AXIS N OVER THE W ATLC. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES
TO SHOW VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR W
CARIBBEAN WHERE SOME MOISTURE IS MOVING IN. SOUTHERLY SURFACE
FLOW OVER THE W CARIBBEAN IS INDUCING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER
THE GULF OF HONDURAS BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO LINGER MUCH LONGER.
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS
WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 15N64W TO 19N76W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF
HISPANIOLA AND N OF 20N ACROSS CUBA BETWEEN 78W-81W. A LINE OF
SHOWERS EXTENDS FROM NE COSTA RICA TO PANAMA NEAR 9N81W. FRESH
TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
WHILE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL REMAIN OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
NW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AND STALL FROM
CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS FRI NIGHT AND THEN BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS
THROUGH SAT.

HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE SW PORTION OF
OF THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
WITH FAIR CONDITIONS. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE OVER THE ISLAND FRI
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT FRONT EXPECTED TO ENTER THE W ATLC
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INCREASING SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION FOR THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A REMNANT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC FROM A 1015 MB LOW N OF
BERMUDA ALONG 32N66W TO 28N74W WHERE IT BECOMES QUASI STATIONARY
TO ACROSS FLORIDA BETWEEN DAYTONA BEACH TO ORLANDO WHERE IT
CONTINUES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AS A WARM FRONT. THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC
PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR W ATLC N OF 27N W OF 75W. AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW W OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 28N21W TO THE W ATLC NEAR 15N52W. A SURFACE
RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB
HIGH NEAR THE AZORES AND A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 28N44W. THE W ATLC
FRONT WILL LIFT N THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE GULF LOW WILL TRACK NE AND OVER THE W
ATLC THIS EVENING AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES FURTHER NE
ALONG THE SE U.S. COAST TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
REACH FROM NEAR 31N72W TO CENTRAL CUBA BY FRI EVENING THEN FROM
31N66W TO 25N70W THEN WEAKENING TO FAR EASTERN CUBA BY EARLY SAT
AND CONTINUING TOWARD THE CENTRAL ATLC SAT AND SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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