[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

Tue Mar 4 05:51:10 CST 2014

AXNT20 KNHC 041150
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE MAR 04 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH DOES NOT EXIST IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...IT IS
APPARENT INLAND IN AFRICA. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 6N14W...TO 2N20W...
CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 24W...TO 2S40W...TO 3S34W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN
40W AND 44W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE
SOUTH OF 3N BETWEEN 16W AND 28W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 3N BETWEEN
44W AND 48W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF
60W...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. ANY AMOUNT OF MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH THAT IS SUPPORTING THE
CURRENT GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...OFF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. THE COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH 32N74W...TO FLORIDA NEAR 29N82W...TO THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N90W...TO 25N93W. THE FRONT BECOMES
STATIONARY AT 25N93W AND IT CONTINUES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...
ACROSS INTERIOR MEXICO...TO 26N100W AND BEYOND THE TEXAS BIG
BEND. MULTILAYERED MOISTURE IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT
RUNS FROM THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 27N80W TO 24N88W AND 18N95W IN
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS
ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO
28N80W AT THE FLORIDA COAST. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 24N TO 31N BETWEEN 92W
AND 98W.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF
THE COLD FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS...ALONG THE MEXICO COAST TO 23N98W...TO 20N97W...AND
19N95W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT ALL THE PLATFORM SITES/
ICAO STATIONS.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAIN COVER THE ENTIRE TEXAS GULF COASTAL
PLAINS. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE REST OF THE COASTAL PLAINS
FROM LOUISIANA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...TO SARASOTA FLORIDA.
VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS WITH FOG HAVE BEEN REPORTED FROM
FORT MYERS TO PUNTA GORDA DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS OR SO.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...THE COLD FRONT FROM 28N83W TO 24N94W TO 19N97W. EXPECT
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10
FEET TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT TO 25N TO THE WEST OF 94W.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE COLOMBIA COAST THAT IS
NEAR 10N76W...TO 17N80W...BEYOND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH A 26N53W
ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 20N55W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 16N62W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...TO
11N64W JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE COAST OF VENEZUELA. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS THAT ARE FROM
10N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 65W.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE
TRADE WIND FLOW...ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST OF 70W...FROM 15N TO 20N
BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...TO THE NORTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 80W...
TO THE SOUTH OF 16N TO THE WEST OF 80W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA INCLUDING IN HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA...AND TO
THE NORTH OF 16N TO THE WEST OF 80W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL
TOTAL...FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 04/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE
PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...
MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.33 IN GUADELOUPE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH DOES NOT EXIST AT THE MOMENT IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NOR IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET...THE HIGHEST NEAR THE COLOMBIA COAST...FROM
11N TO 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 78W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
LAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES HISPANIOLA. MIDDLE
LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ALSO CROSSES HISPANIOLA...
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BAHAMAS.

CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN PUERTO PLATA. FEW LOW
CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTO DOMINGO...PUNTA CANA...AND IN
SANTIAGO.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY-TO-
WESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH A CARIBBEAN SEA
RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...ASSOCIATED WITH
AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE BAHAMAS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS
THAT NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY-TO-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
CROSS HISPANIOLA. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START
JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THEN
MOVE EASTWARD WITH TIME...ENDING UP AT LEAST 550 NM TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N49W TO A
26N53W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 20N55W...TO 16N62W IN
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 11N64W JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
COAST OF VENEZUELA. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM
31N49W TO A 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N52W...
WITH A COLD FRONT FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 22N55W. A SURFACE
TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 22N55W TO 18N61W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 23N TO 31N
BETWEEN 48W AND 52W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED TO
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS...ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 40W
AND 60W...AND FROM 16N TO 23N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS
TO THE WEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES
THROUGH 32N56W TO A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
29N61W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND ANDROS ISLAND...TO 24N80W IN THE
FLORIDA STRAITS.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 29N24W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 40W.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 34N5W IN MOROCCO...TO A 1032 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 35N24W...CONTINUING THROUGH 32N32W
TO 29N38W 24N46W...AND TO 18N52W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A COLD FRONT 31N77W TO 29N82W. EXPECT
SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS...EXCEPT NORTHEAST WINDS TO THE
WEST OF THE FRONT...AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET...TO THE
NORTH OF 30N TO THE WEST OF 70W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN
CONSISTS OF A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N49W TO A 1016 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N52W...WITH A COLD FRONT FROM THE
LOW CENTER TO 22N55W. EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA
HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 29N WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

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