[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 040530
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE MAR 04 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...A GALE WARNING EXISTS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT IS ALONG 30N84W TO 24N94W TO 20N97W. EXPECT GALE-
FORCE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET TO
THE NORTH OF THE FRONT TO 24N TO THE WEST OF 96W. EXPECT ALSO
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS ELSEWHERE TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT. SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF
27N TO THE WEST OF 94W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH DOES NOT EXIST IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...IT IS
APPARENT INLAND IN AFRICA. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 5N14W...TO 2N20W
1N26W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 30W/31W...TO 2S40W...CURVING
INTO BRAZIL NEAR 3S43W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
STRONG FROM 1S TO 2N BETWEEN 39W AND 42W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 17W AND 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. ANY AMOUNT OF MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH THAT IS SUPPORTING THE
CURRENT GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT IS INLAND IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S.A....AND MOVING EASTWARD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA TO THE FLORIDA COAST
THAT IS NEAR 30N83W...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N90W...TO
23N95W AND 20N96W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY NEAR 20N96W AND
IT CONTINUES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...ACROSS INTERIOR MEXICO...TO
25N100W AND BEYOND THE TEXAS BIG BEND. MULTILAYERED MOISTURE IS
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE FLORIDA COAST
NEAR 27N82W TO 24N90W AND 18N95W IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...IN THE WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND PARTS OF
INLAND MEXICO...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 26N
TO 28N BETWEEN 92W AND 96W...AND FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 96W AND
100W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN MEXICO AND TEXAS...SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 24N TO 27N BETWEEN 98W AND 100W.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF
THE COLD FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS...ALONG THE MEXICO COAST TO 22N98W...TO 20N97W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO
STATIONS...KMZG...KBBF...KBQX...KVAF...KEMK...KGUL...KHQI...
KGBK...KEHC...KCRH...KVBS...KEIR...KATP... KMDJ...AND KDLP. ICAO
STATION KSPR IS REPORTING SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS...AFTER LOW CLOUD
CEILINGS FOR MANY OF THE MOST RECENT OBSERVATIONS.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE ENTIRE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS.
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ALSO ARE BEING OBSERVED FROM THE
MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST NORTHWARD. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE
AREA FROM SOUTHERN COASTAL LOUISIANA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE LINE FROM MARIANNA TO THE
NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE PANAMA CITY FLORIDA METROPOLITAN AREA.
BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE TAMPA
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...AND IN SARASOTA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT THE 6-HOUR FORECAST OF A COLD FRONT FROM 30N92W TO 27N97W.
EXPECT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 8 FEET TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE COLOMBIA COAST THAT IS
NEAR 10N76W...TO 17N80W...BEYOND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH A 28N53W
ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 20N57W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 16N64W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...TO
12N66W JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE COAST OF VENEZUELA. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS THAT ARE FROM 14N
TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 65W.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE
TRADE WIND FLOW...ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST OF 70W...FROM 15N TO 20N
BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...TO THE NORTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 80W...
AND TO THE SOUTH OF 11N TO THE WEST OF 80W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL...FOR THE PERIOD
ENDING AT 04/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...
WAS 0.33 IN GUADELOUPE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH DOES NOT EXIST AT THE MOMENT IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NOR IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS 8 TO 9 FEET...THE HIGHEST NEAR THE COLOMBIA COAST...
FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO LAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES HISPANIOLA. MIDDLE
LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ALSO CROSSES HISPANIOLA...
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BAHAMAS.

CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW
LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTO DOMINGO...PUNTA CANA...
SANTIAGO...AND IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY-TO-
WESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH A CARIBBEAN SEA
RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...ASSOCIATED WITH
AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE BAHAMAS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS
THAT NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY-TO-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
CROSS HISPANIOLA. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START
JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THEN
MOVE EASTWARD WITH TIME...ENDING UP AT LEAST 550 NM TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N50W TO A
28N53W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 20N57W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO 16N64W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 12N66W JUST
TO THE NORTH OF THE COAST OF VENEZUELA. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N50W TO A 1017 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 28N52W...TO 22N55W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM
22N55W TO 19N61W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE
FROM 24N TO 32N BETWEEN 47W AND 52W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE FROM 16N TO 24N BETWEEN 49W AND 60W.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS
TO THE WEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N58W TO A
SECOND 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N63W...TO
27N70W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND ANDROS ISLAND...TO 24N80W IN THE
FLORIDA STRAITS.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 28N25W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 40W.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 34N5W IN MOROCCO...TO A 1031 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 36N24W...CONTINUING THROUGH 32N33W
TO 29N40W 24N47W...AND TO 19N54W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N50W TO A 1017 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N52W...TO 22N55W. A SURFACE
TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 22N55W TO 19N61W. EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR
LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE WEST
OF THE FRONT TO 61W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA
HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT
TO 47W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF SOUTHWEST WINDS 20
TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF
29N TO THE WEST OF 74W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND
SEA HEIGHTS 8 FEET FROM 13N TO 17N TO THE EAST OF 42W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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