[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040000
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON MAR 03 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N86W SW
TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR TUXPAN. GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
OCCURRING WEST OF THE FRONT TO 25N W OF 96W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 05N09W TO
03N14W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
03N14W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 26W THEN ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 47W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 04N BETWEEN 17W-23W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE SE CONUS WITH ENERGY FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF
36N83W. THIS SHORTWAVE SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N86W SW TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 21N98W
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING 60 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. NORTHERLY WINDS OF GALE FORCE ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS THE FRONT STALLS FROM
THE NE GULF TO SW GULF TUESDAY. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT
WEDNESDAY AS CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NE
GULF WATERS WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING AND A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THE BASIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
BASIN THIS EVENING AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING AND VERY DRY AIR ALOFT W OF 66W. THE ONLY NOTABLE
AREA OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS SW OF THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE AS SHALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING N OF
16N BETWEEN 71W-78W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OCCURRING ACROSS
INLAND PORTIONS OF EASTERN HONDURAS AND NORTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA...AND COASTAL WESTERN PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. FARTHER
EAST...ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIPS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N64W AND SUPPORTS A STATIONARY
FRONT NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. MOISTURE TRAILS SW FROM THE
FRONTAL REGION WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING N OF 15N E OF
64W. OTHERWISE...TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT
FEW DAYS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT WITH THE STRONG WINDS NOTED
IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY FAIR SKIES ARE NOTED ON THE LAST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES OF THE DAY AND THIS OVERALL TRANQUIL WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE QUIET WEATHER IS LARGELY
DUE TO BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND THE ASSOCIATED DRY AIR AND
STABLE AIRMASS ALOFT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC
REGION PROVIDING MOSTLY DRY AIR ALOFT AND LARGELY SUPPORTIVE OF
A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED SOUTH OF
BERMUDA NEAR 31N65W. ONLY A FEW POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF AND EAST OF THE BAHAMAS FROM 23N-28N
BETWEEN 72W-77W EMBEDDED WITHIN MOIST S-SE RETURN FLOW ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE RIDGING. FARTHER EAST...A
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 29N53W SW TO A
BASE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N49W S-SW TO 22N56W
BECOMING STATIONARY TO 18N61W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 36N25W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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