[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041745
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE MAR 04 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 7N12W AND CONTINUES TO 5N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 2N26W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 36W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 1N E OF 1W ACROSS
THE EQUATOR AND THE PRIME MERIDIAN.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A REMNANT COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA
BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND FORT MYERS ALONG 25N85W TO 25N90W WHERE IT
BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG 23N95W TO THE COAST OF S MEXICO
NEAR 18N94W. THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT IS OVER
THE NW ATLC. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING ACROSS S TEXAS
AND NE MEXICO INTO THE NW GULF BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 24N W OF 92W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE N GULF N OF 27N E
OF 92W ACROSS FLORIDA. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY
AN UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN. THE AREA S OF
THE FRONT IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE LITTLE UNTIL A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS ALONG IT NEAR 24N94W ON WED. SURFACE LOW WILL DRAG THE
FRONT E AS THE LOW MOVES TO 28N88W WED NIGHT AND INTO THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND THU WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE N
YUCATAN PENINSULA THU. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GULF ON
FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS N
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING
ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS N OF 14N E OF 66W TO OVER THE
LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS...N OF 17N BETWEEN 73W-80W INCLUDING
JAMAICA PORTIONS OF HAITI AND CUBA...S OF 17N W OF 83W TO INLAND
OVER HONDURAS AND THE YUCATAN...AND S OF 10N BETWEEN 80W-83W TO
INLAND OVER PANAMA. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL
DEVELOP LATE EACH NIGHT ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA WHILE
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA THROUGH FRI. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN BY FRI.

HISPANIOLA...
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON OVER MOST OF THE ISLAND
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SW HAITI WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS GENERATED
BY THE TRADE WINDS ARE DEVELOPING. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH FRI. FAIR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
THU/EARLY FRI WHEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL THEN AGAIN MOVE OVER
THE ISLAND INCREASING SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC DRAPES A COLD INTO THE REGION
NEAR 32N70W ALONG 29N78W TO ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR MELBOURNE. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
31N69W 29N76W TO 26N79W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE N OF THE
COLD FRONT AND WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC TO A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC THAT EXTENDS FROM 32N46W TO 22N51W. A WEAK
1018 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N52W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
ALONG 26N51W TO 23N53W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 19N57W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT N
OF 23N. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS BETWEEN THE ABOVE FRONTS WITH A
1021 MB HIGH NEAR 28N59W. A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH
ABOUT 200 NM SE OF THE AZORES. W ATLC FRONT WILL MOVE LITTLE
THROUGH WED. THIS FRONT WILL THEN LIFT N WED NIGHT AS SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. A SECOND LOW FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO WILL APPROACH W ATLC AND PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE
AREA THU NIGHT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH FROM 31N76W TO
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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