[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 030553
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON MAR 03 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...A GALE WARNING IS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO IN 18
HOURS...

A COLD FRONT WILL BE ALONG 30N85W 22N96W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET FROM 22N
TO 25N TO THE WEST OF 96W. EXPECT ALSO NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE WEST OF 94W...
ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT AND TO THE WEST OF 90W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF
GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 11N15W...CURVING TO 9N17W...6N17W AND 5N20W.
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N20W...TO 2N30W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR
ALONG 35W...TO 4S43W IN NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN
CLUSTERS FROM 2S TO 3N BETWEEN 26W AND 37W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO
THE SOUTH OF 4N TO THE EAST OF 20W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
IN BRAZIL FROM 3S TO 1N BETWEEN 48W AND 51W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS IN CENTRAL AMERICA...INTO SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...AND
NORTHWESTWARD TO 20N100W IN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF MEXICO.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR...APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...
COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF 29N90W 24N98W.
MULTILAYERED MOISTURE IS MOVING FROM MEXICO AND TEXAS INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS. THE
TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH EAST TEXAS TO
THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST REGION...AND THEN WESTWARD AND
NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND 28N100W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM THE UPPER TEXAS GULF
COAST NEAR BEAUMONT-PORT ARTHUR NORTHWARD INTO LOUISIANA.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS
TO THE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A
1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N70W...TO CENTRAL
FLORIDA NEAR 28N81W...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
24N90W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS OF 500 FEET OR LOWER...WITH FOG AND
VISIBILITIES OF 2 MILES OR LESS...ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE
PLATFORMS THAT ARE THE CLOSEST TO THE TEXAS COAST. LOW CLOUD
CEILINGS ARE ELSEWHERE AT...KEMK...KGUL...KEHC...KCRH...AND
KIPN.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS FROM HARLINGEN
WESTWARD. LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN ARE IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF
COAST AREA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND AREAS OF RAIN COVER THE REST
OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS COVER
SOUTHERN/COASTAL LOUISIANA. RAIN IS BEING REPORTED IN THE
WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. CLEARING SKIES COVER
MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. A LOW CLOUD CEILING COVERS MILTON AND
CRESTVIEW IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...TO THE PANAMA CITY
METROPOLITAN AREA...FROM APALACHICOLA TO MARIANNA...PATCHES OF
FOG WITH VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS ARE BEING REPORTED
CURRENTLY AND/OR HAVE BEEN OBSERVED DURING THE LAST FEW
OBSERVATIONS IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED IN THE FORT MYERS AREA...AND IN
NAPLES DURING THE LAST OBSERVATION.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT THE 6-HOUR FORECAST OF A COLD FRONT FROM 30N92W TO 27N97W.
EXPECT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 8 FEET TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA
BORDER...NORTHWESTWARD TO NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...INTO
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...AND NORTHWESTWARD TO 20N100W IN INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF MEXICO.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 22N61W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE...INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N70W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N54W TO 25N60W TO 19N65W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN
67W AND 75W.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE
TRADE WIND FLOW...ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST OF 70W...AND ELSEWHERE
BETWEEN THE LINES...FROM WESTERN JAMAICA-TO-HONDURAS NEAR 15N84W
AND FROM 14N75W-TO-THE PANAMA COAST NEAR 9N78W. 24-HOUR RAINFALL
TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 02/1200 UTC...
ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WERE 0.09 IN GUADELOUPE AND
TRINIDAD...AND 0.03 IN KINGSTON IN JAMAICA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH DOES NOT EXIST AT THE MOMENT IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. A SECOND
AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND
SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 73W
AND 77W...INCLUDING IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS
HISPANIOLA...BASED ON THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THAT PASSES THROUGH 22N61W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH THE
MONA PASSAGE...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N70W.

CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...LOW
LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN
SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS
COVER PUNTA CANA AND PUERTO PLATA. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS COVER
SANTIAGO. RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS
AROUND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AT SOME OBSERVATION SITES.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH IS
DIRECTLY ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA AT THE START OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE TROUGH EVENTUALLY MOVES INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA. NORTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW
WILL COVER HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA
TROUGH. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL BE DIRECTLY ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA FOR
THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY WIND EVENTUALLY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
REST OF THE TIME.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N56W TO
22N61W...THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
16N70W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N54W TO 25N60W TO 19N65W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS WITHIN 100 NM TO
200 NM TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT FROM 25N TO 33N. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE WITHIN 100 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N53W TO 23N57W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 23N57W
18N63W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 14N
TO 20N BETWEEN 67W AND 75W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES
FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 02/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN
AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC...WAS 0.57 FOR BERMUDA.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS
TO THE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A
1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N70W...TO CENTRAL
FLORIDA NEAR 28N81W...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
24N90W.

A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 24N40W. THE CENTER IS
COMPARATIVELY LESS WELL-DEFINED NOW THAN IT WAS 24 HOURS AGO.
THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 24N40W CENTER
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 20W AND
46W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE
FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 30W AND 35W.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 34N5W IN MOROCCO...TO A 1030 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 35N29W...CONTINUING THROUGH
32N36W TO 29N41W 25N46W...AND TO 19N57W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A COLD FRONT FROM 31N56W TO 19N65W. EXPECT
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10
FEET TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT TO 48W. EXPECT
WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE NORTH OF
27N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT TO 60W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS
OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN
60W AND 70W AND FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 62W AND 75W. A SECOND
AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA
HEIGHTS 8 TO 9 FEET FROM 11N TO 26N TO THE EAST OF 45W. EXPECT
WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF
11N BETWEEN 48W AND 54W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND
SEA HEIGHTS 8 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 40W AND
50W. A THIRD AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF THE 18-HOUR FORECAST OF
SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET
TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE WEST OF 77W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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