[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 031201
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON MAR 03 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...A GALE WARNING EXISTS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT IS ALONG 30N92W 26N97W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE NORTH
WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE COLD
FRONT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH DOES NOT EXIST IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...IT IS
APPARENT INLAND IN AFRICA. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 3N16W...CROSSING
THE EQUATOR ALONG 20W...TO 2S25W 2S33W AND 3S37W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN
CLUSTERS FROM...THE EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 15W AND 21W...FROM 2N
TO 3N BETWEEN 27W AND 31W...AND FROM 3S TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN
26W AND 38W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IN BRAZIL FROM 3S TO
THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 48W AND 53W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS IN CENTRAL AMERICA...INTO SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...AND
NORTHWESTWARD TO 20N100W IN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF MEXICO.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR...APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...
COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF 30N86W 27N90W
22N98W. MULTILAYERED MOISTURE IS MOVING FROM MEXICO AND TEXAS
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH AN
INLAND MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A COLD FRONT. THE
TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH MISSOURI...ARKANSAS...OKLAHOMA...
LOUISIANA...AND TEXAS. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...TO 27N94W IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS ALONG THE BORDER WITH MEXICO...AND THEN THE FRONT CURVES
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN MEXICO...BEYOND THE TEXAS
BIG BEND. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE IS IN
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. ISOLATED MODERATE EXTENDS FROM THE
MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST AREA INTO THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS
TO THE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A
1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N68W...TO THE ABACO
ISLANDS AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR 26N81W...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR 25N94W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS OF 1000 FEET OR LOWER...WITH FOG AND
VISIBILITIES OF 2 MILES OR LESS...ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE
PLATFORMS THAT ARE THE CLOSEST TO THE TEXAS COAST. LOW CLOUD
CEILINGS ARE ELSEWHERE AT...KVAF...KEMK...KGUL...KHQI...
KGBK...KEHC...KEIR...KSPR...KMDJ...AND KDLP.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE ENTIRE TEXAS GULF COASTAL
PLAINS...WITH SOME RAIN STILL IN PARTS OF THE DEEP SOUTH. LOW
CLOUDS COVER SOUTHERN/COASTAL LOUISIANA...WITH RAIN IN SOME
PARTS ALSO. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES OF
2 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG COVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE WEST
OF PERRY FLORIDA. SOME VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG
HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA DURING THE
LAST FEW HOURS.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT THE 6-HOUR FORECAST OF A COLD FRONT FROM 30N92W TO 27N97W.
EXPECT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 8 FEET TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA
BORDER...NORTHWESTWARD TO NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...INTO
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...AND NORTHWESTWARD TO 20N100W IN INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF MEXICO.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N54W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 24N58W...ACROSS PUERTO RICO...INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N69W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
REACHES THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
ANGUILLA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 75 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 24N55W 21N59W 17N63W...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE
TRADE WIND FLOW...ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST OF 70W...FROM 14N TO 20N
BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND 76W RELATED TO REMNANT MOISTURE
WITH THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT REACHES
16N69W...AND ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 17N TO THE WEST OF 76W
INCLUDING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. 24-
HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 02/1200
UTC... ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WERE 0.09 IN
GUADELOUPE AND TRINIDAD...AND 0.03 IN KINGSTON IN JAMAICA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH DOES NOT EXIST AT THE MOMENT IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO LAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. A
SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 16N
BETWEEN 74W AND 77W...AND FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 76W AND
78W...INCLUDING IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. EXPECT ALSO NORTHEAST
WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE
NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 80W.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES
HISPANIOLA...BASED ON THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THAT PASSES THROUGH 24N58W...ACROSS PUERTO RICO...INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N69W.

CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
LIGHT RAIN AND A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE BEING REPORTED IN
SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS COVER
SANTO DOMINGO AND PUERTO PLATA. FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING
REPORTED IN PUNTA CANA. RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED DURING THE LAST
FEW HOURS AROUND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AT SOME OBSERVATION
SITES.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH IS
DIRECTLY ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA AT THE START OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE TROUGH EVENTUALLY MOVES INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA. NORTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW
WILL COVER HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA
TROUGH. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL BE DIRECTLY ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA FOR
THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY WIND EVENTUALLY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
REST OF THE TIME.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N54W TO
24N58W...ACROSS PUERTO RICO...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
16N69W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N52W TO 26N55W TO 20N60W...TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR ANGUILLA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N50W TO 24N55W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 24N55W 21N59W
17N63W...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE
PERIOD ENDING AT 02/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC...WAS 0.57 FOR BERMUDA.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS
TO THE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A
1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N68W...TO THE ABACO
ISLANDS AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR 26N81W...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR 25N94W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 24N37W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 46W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN
28W AND 35W.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 33N6W IN MOROCCO...TO A 1029 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 35N27W...CONTINUING THROUGH 32N30W
TO 29N36W 25N44W 18N57W...AND TO 16N60W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A COLD FRONT FROM 31N52W TO 18N63W. EXPECT
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10
FEET WITHIN 300 NM TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH OF
28N. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10
FEET TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT TO 64W...
AND FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 62W AND 74W. A SECOND AREA OF
CONCERN CONSISTS OF WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9
FEET FROM 12N TO 23N TO THE EAST OF 43W. A THIRD AREA OF CONCERN
CONSISTS OF THE 12-HOUR FORECAST...SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO
THE WEST OF 77W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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