[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022351
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN MAR 02 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A GALE WARNING IS FORECASTED FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH GUSTS
TO GALE FORCE BEGINNING TONIGHT THROUGH MON AFTERNOON AND GALE
FORCE WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY TUE. THESE WINDS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE GULF
LATER TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 5N8W AND CONTINUES ALONG 3N10W TO 3N18W. THE ITCZ BEGINS
NEAR 1N27W AND CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 29W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE AREA BETWEEN THE MONSOON TROUGH AND
THE ITCZ ALONG 5N24W TO 3N26W. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 4W-9W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W CARIBBEAN OVER THE GULF AND
THE E CONUS NEAR PENSACOLA FLORIDA. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE
GULF S OF 27N. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF EXTENDING FROM
THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS
BORDER. SOUTHERN RETURN FLOW REMAINS OVER THE NW GULF BANKING
LOW CLOUDS N OF 27N W OF 93W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING S OVER THE PLAIN STATES TO
TEXAS AND N MEXICO SUPPORTING THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL
ENTER THE GULF LATER TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING
INTO THE NW GULF OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E THROUGH EARLY MON AHEAD OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NW GULF TONIGHT
REACHING FROM SE LOUISIANA TO NE MEXICO EARLY MON MORNING AND
FROM SW FLORIDA TO TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE TUE. THE
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT IN N OVER THE E GULF WED AS SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT IN THE W GULF. THIS LOW WILL MOVE TO
THE NE GULF WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA LATE WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 80W EXTENDING A RIDGE
AXIS N OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN. REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER
THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN GENERATING POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWERS N
OF 16N BETWEEN 66W-74W INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. THE
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS S
OF 17N BETWEEN 76W-83W AND FROM 12N-17N E OF 55W TO OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE CARIBBEAN WITH FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS
DEVELOPING LATE EACH NIGHT ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA
THROUGH THU.

HISPANIOLA...
REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
GENERATING POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 16N BETWEEN 66W-74W
INCLUDING ALL OF HISPANIOLA. THIS MOISTURE/SHOWERS WILL LINGER
THROUGH MON WITH SKIES CLEARING ON TUE. GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL COVER THE ISLAND THROUGH THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 65W ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB
HIGH NEAR 31N73W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE W INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR
31N57W AND EXTENDS ALONG TO 26N61W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO
22N66W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N57W ALONG
25N59W TO 20N65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH. A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLC E OF THE FRONT/TROUGH ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH ABOUT 200
NM S OF THE AZORES. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC EARLY TONIGHT. W ATLC SURFACE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY MON.
THE HIGH WILL THEN SLIDE E MON EVENING THROUGH TUE WHILE
WEAKENING ALLOWING FOR THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE SE
U.S. COAST MON NIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT
REACHES FROM NEAR 31N75W TO SURFACE LOW NEAR 30N78W AND TO NEAR
DAYTONA BEACH EARLY TUE. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR 31N73W
TO A SURFACE LOW NEAR 30N78W AND TO NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL BY EARLY
TUE. THE SURFACE LOW WILL THEN MOVE NE OF AREA WED WITH
WEAKENING COLD FRONT FROM NEAR 31N72W TO NEAR WEST PALM BEACH BY
WED LATE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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