[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 021802
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN MAR 02 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 5N5W TO
3N11W TO 3N17W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS
WEST OF A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 0N27W TO 0S40W TO 0S50W.
CONVECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE IS NOTED FROM 1N TO 3N E OF
17W...FROM 3S-2N BETWEEN 28W-34W AND WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE
OF A SURFACE TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 4N23W TO 2S25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF WHICH ALONG
DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE SUPPORT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH
OVER SE GEORGIA NEAR 30N81W EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND
WESTERN ATLC WATERS INTO THE GULF AND PROVIDES RETURN FLOW OF 15-
20 KT ACROSS THE BASIN. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW MOISTURE ADVECTION
FROM THE CARIBBEAN ALONG THE NW GULF COAST WHILE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOW MODERATE MOISTURE STREAMING FROM THE E PACIFIC INTO
THIS REGION. THIS MOISTURE IS SUPPORTING ADVECTION FOG ALONG THE
COASTS OF LOUISIANA AND TEXAS AS WELL AS GULF ADJACENT WATERS N
OF 27N. OTHERWISE...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE
NW GULF LATE TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL QUICKLY REACH FROM THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO TAMPICO MEXICO EARLY MONDAY. BY TUE MORNING
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY BEFORE THE PORTION
OVER THE GULF TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL NEAR WESTERLY FLOW IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING VERY DRY AIR AND STABLE CONDITIONS
ALOFT. HOWEVER...A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC
SW INTO THE CENTRAL-EASTERN CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT OVER
THE SW N ATLC WHICH DISSIPATING TAIL EXTENDS INTO EASTERN
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE TROUGHING IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS ALSO
SUPPORTS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THAT ENTERS THE MONA PASSAGE. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THESE FEATURES IS
SUPPORTING SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND ADJACENT
WATERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS EXTENDING TO HAITI. SSMI
TPW IMAGERY ALSO SHOW PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE ENTERING THE
SE CARIBBEAN WATERS THUS ENHANCING SHOWERS ACROSS THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. IN ADDITION...SHOWERS HAS BEEN REPORTED WEST OF ROATAN
ISLAND IN THE NW BASIN. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE
MIDDLE ATLC AND SOUTHEAST  STATES AS WELL AS ADJACENT WESTERN N
ATLC WATERS IS PROVIDING NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 15-20 KT W
OF 74W WHILE TRADES OF 10-15 KT DOMINATE OVER THE REMAINDER
BASIN. THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NE
BUT LINGERING MOISTURE MAY ENHANCE SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA UNTIL
EARLY MONDAY.

HISPANIOLA...
RAINSHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC WITH TAIL EXTENDING INTO EASTERN
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WITH AXIS ENTERING
THE MONA PASSAGE. AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DRIFT
NE...TRAILING MOISTURE MAY ENHANCE MORE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ISLAND THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE WESTERN N ATLC WHICH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
FROM A 1005 MB LOW NEAR 35N56W TO 30N59W TO 22N65W WHERE IT
STARTS TO DISSIPATE TO EASTERN HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N69W. THE
TROUGHING ALOFT ALSO SUPPORTS A SURFACE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM
26N59W TO 21N64W TO THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 18N68W TO 17N69W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES ARE N OF 25N
BETWEEN 53W-60W AS WELL AS WITHIN 160 NM EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS
N OF 19N. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT EAST OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED NEAR 24N37W IS ENHANCING SOME SHOWERS FROM 21N-25N
BETWEEN 34W-38W. MIDDLE LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE EASTERN ATLC
IS ALSO ENHANCING SHOWERS BETWEEN A LINE FROM 20N18W TO 10N31W
AND A LINE FROM 22N21W TO 11N31W TO INCLUDE THE NORTHERN CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1033 MB HIGH CENTERED S OF THE AZORES NEAR 33N29W AND A
1031 MB HIGH NEAR 42N35W. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
NE AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR

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