[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 021205
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN MAR 02 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...A GALE WARNING EXISTS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT IS ALONG 31N62W 20N71W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE NORTHWEST
TO NORTH WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS 9 TO 13 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 30N
TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT TO 67W. EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 12 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT TO 70W. EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO
THE EAST OF THE FRONT TO 60W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN
54W AND 60W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS
8 TO 10 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE IVORY
COAST NEAR 5N5W TO 2N10W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 2N10W...
CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 16W...TO 1S18W...REACHING THE EQUATOR
A SECOND TIME ALONG 23W...TO 1S26W AND 1S36W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO
THE SOUTH OF 5N TO THE EAST OF 18W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 2N TO 3S BETWEEN 24W
AND 36W. SCATTERED STRONG IN ONE CELL OF CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION FROM 1N TO 3N BETWEEN 48W AND 49W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS IN SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO/THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS INTERIOR MEXICO...
BEYOND WEST TEXAS. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR...APPARENT IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE AREA.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...ACROSS THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC
OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT ALL THE ICAO STATIONS
THAT ARE TO THE WEST OF 80W...INCLUDING KMDJ...EXCEPT FOR KEMK
AND KGUL.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS...AND THE
WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. VISIBILITIES OF 2 MILES OR
LESS AND FOG COVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI AND
ALABAMA... AND THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND
THE SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA COAST.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA
BORDER...NORTHWESTWARD TO NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...INTO
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...AND NORTHWESTWARD RIGHT THROUGH MEXICO
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.A.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 32N50W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 21N57W...ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA ISLANDS...TO THE NORTH CENTRAL COAST OF VENEZUELA.

THE BASE OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS REACHING
HISPANIOLA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 30N62W. BROKEN LOW LEVEL
TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND HISPANIOLA FROM 16N TO
21N BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND 79W.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE
TRADE WIND FLOW...FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 58W AND 61W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE EAST OF 70W...BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...TO
THE SOUTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 80W...AND ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST
OF 80W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE 24-
HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 02/0000
UTC... ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.13 IN
GUADELOUPE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH DOES NOT EXIST AT THE MOMENT IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 80W...MOVING
TOWARD THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST IN TRADE WIND FLOW.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO.
EXPECT ALSO NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 18N BETWEEN 73W AND
76W...INCLUDING IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.

...HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING HISPANIOLA
FROM THE BAHAMAS AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 30N66W. BROKEN LOW
LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND HISPANIOLA FROM 15N TO
21N BETWEEN 68W AND 78W.

CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS COVER SANTO DOMINGO AND SANTIAGO. FEW LOW
CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN PUNTA CANA...AND IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS
MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE DIRECTLY
IN A TROUGH AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TROUGH
MOVES EASTWARD GRADUALLY WITH TIME...BRINGING NORTHWESTERLY WIND
ACROSS THE AREA GRADUALLY. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB
SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND WILL CROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST
12 HOURS OR SO...AS HISPANIOLA WILL BE AT THE BASE OF AN
ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH. THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD. THE
WIND FLOW BECOMES NORTHERLY WITH A CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE FOR THE
REST OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N62W TO
27N65W...TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THAT IS
ALONG 70W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N61W 25N65W...TO THE NORTHERN COASTAL BORDER OF HAITI AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A SURFACE TROUGH IS FROM 80 NM TO 130 NM TO
THE EAST OF THE FRONT FROM CENTRAL HISPANIOLA TO 31N. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE NORTH
OF 20N BETWEEN 53W AND 65W. BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...AND HISPANIOLA FROM 16N TO 21N BETWEEN THE MONA
PASSAGE AND 79W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE
PERIOD ENDING AT 02/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC...IS 1.25 FOR BERMUDA.

A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 23N42W. THE CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 23N42W CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 29W AND 50W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 21N TO 24N BETWEEN 40W
AND 43W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N TO 32N
BETWEEN 30W AND 50W.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 33N6W IN MOROCCO...TO A 1032 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N29W...CONTINUING TO 34N39W...
TO 30N44W 27N50W 22N59W...TO THE ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO
10 FEET FROM 12N TO 18N TO THE EAST OF 45W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20
KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN
46W AND 54W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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