[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300610 AAA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE DATA SHOW THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 160 NM E OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA IS SLOWLY
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WHILE DRIFTING SOUTH. ALTHOUGH UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE
LOW IS CURRENTLY GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN
150 NM IN S QUADRANT. CONVECTION IS LIMITED ELSEWHERE AROUND THE
SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REFER TO THE ATLC TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 17N57W TO 8N59W MOVING WNW AT 20 TO 25 KT. THIS
WAVE WAS RELOCATED WELL WEST OF PREVIOUS POSITION BASED ON TPW
SHOWING MOISTURE CRESTING EAST OF THE WINDWARDS. SAHARAN AIR
LAYER HAS HINDERED PREVIOUS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 9N TO 14N BETWEEN 58W AND 62W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
17N67W TO THE N COAST OF VENEZUELA AT 68W. THE WAVE MOVING W AT
20 KT. MINIMAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
20N85W TO THE N COAST OF HONDURAS AT 86W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT.
MOST CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE IS OVER HONDURAS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA NEAR 15N17W
TO 6N35W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 6N35W AND CONTINUES TO 6N54W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM S OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 22W AND 32W...AND WITHIN 60-90 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 32W AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION BETWEEN TEXAS/LOUISIANA IS
DRIFTING WESTWARD BENEATH A BUILDING MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
ANOTHER SMALL MID-LEVEL CYCLONE WAS CENTERED NEAR 23N86W. AT THE
SURFACE...A RIDGE DOMINATED THE GULF AND WAS ANCHORED BY A 1020
MB HIGH JUST S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA. VARIABLE WINDS WERE IN
THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE NEAR THE HIGH AND OVER MOST OF THE GULF E
OF 93W. WINDS WERE MORE SOUTHEASTERLY OVER THE WESTERN
GULF...INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT ALONG THE TEXAS COAST AND
ELSEWHERE W OF 93W. FAIR SKIES PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE GULF.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW MODERATE MOIST CONDITIONS SOUTH OF 16N
WHILE A TONGUE OF VERY DRY SAHARAN AIR MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN AND THE GREATER ANTILLES. THIS DRY AIR IS
SUPPORTING MOSTLY FAIR BUT HAZY CONDITIONS IN THE CARIBBEAN. AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW N OF PUERTO RICO IS GENERATING DIFFLUENCE OVER
THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN WHICH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.  THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
ATLANTIC RIDGE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH IS MAINTAINING 20-25 KT
TRADES IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND 10-20 KT WINDS IN BOTH THE
WESTERN AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE WAVE OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA MON AND IS
EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE EPAC.

...HISPANIOLA...

DRY SAHARAN AIRMASS CONTINUES ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES
SUPPORTING FAIR BUT HAZY WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE CONTINUED
PRESENCE OF THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER IN THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS SHOULD RESULT IN DELAYED DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION WITH GENERALLY LESS COVERAGE THAN TYPICALLY EXPECTED.


...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SHARP MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD OVER THE
ATLC N OF 26N BETWEEN 65W AND 72W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM 32N55W TO 27N65W AND PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDED FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 30N45W
THROUGH 22N65W TO THE NW CARIBBEAN. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 34N39W EXTENDING TO THE GREATER ANTILLES
SUPPORTS GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MUNDELL


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