[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300604 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE DATA SHOW THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 160 NM E OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA IS SLOWLY
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WHILE DRIFTING SOUTH. ALTHOUGH UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE
LOW IS CURRENTLY GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN
150 NM IN S QUADRANT. CONVECTION IS LIMITED ELSEWHERE AROUND THE
SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REFER TO THE ATLC TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 17N57W TO 8N59W MOVING WNW AT 20 TO 25 KT. THIS
WAVE WAS RELOCATED WELL WEST OF PREVIOUS POSITION BASED ON TPW
SHOWING MOISTURE CRESTING EAST OF THE WINDWARDS. SAHARAN AIR
LAYER HAS HINDERED PREVIOUS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 9N TO 14N BETWEEN 58W AND 62W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
17N67W TO THE N COAST OF VENEZUELA AT 68W. THE WAVE MOVING W AT
20 KT. MINIMAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
20N85W TO THE N COAST OF HONDURAS AT 86W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT.
MOST CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE IS OVER HONDURAS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA NEAR 15N17W
TO 6N35W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 6N35W AND CONTINUES TO 6N54W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM S OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 22W AND 32W...AND WITHIN 60-90 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 32W AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION BETWEEN TEXAS/LOUISIANA IS
DRIFTING WESTWARD BENEATH A BUILDING MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
ANOTHER SMALL MID-LEVEL CYCLONE WAS CENTERED NEAR 23N86W. AT THE
SURFACE...A RIDGE DOMINATED THE GULF AND WAS ANCHORED BY A 1020
MB HIGH JUST S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA. VARIABLE WINDS WERE IN
THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE NEAR THE HIGH AND OVER MOST OF THE GULF E
OF 93W. WINDS WERE MORE SOUTHEASTERLY OVER THE WESTERN
GULF...INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT ALONG THE TEXAS COAST AND
ELSEWHERE W OF 93W. FAIR SKIES PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE GULF.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE EAST-
CENTRAL PORTION S OF PUERTO RICO AND OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS
INTO CENTRAL AMERICA. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW MODERATE MOIST
CONDITIONS SOUTH OF 16N WHILE A TONGUE OF VERY DRY SAHARAN AIR
MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN AND THE GREATER
ANTILLES. THIS DRY AIR IS SUPPORTING MOSTLY FAIR BUT HAZY
CONDITIONS IN THIS REGION OF THE CARIBBEAN. OVER THE MOIST
REGION...STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL WIND SHEAR HINDERS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS OFF THE FAR NW TIP OF CUBA WHILE A BROAD EAST TO
WEST ELONGATED RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN S OF 17N.
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW N OF PUERTO RICO IS GENERATING DIFFLUENCE
OVER THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN WHICH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.  THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH IS MAINTAINING
20-25 KT TRADES IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND 10-20 KT WINDS IN
BOTH THE WESTERN AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE WAVE OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA TONIGHT
AND MON AND IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN
THE EPAC WATERS TOMORROW MORNING. THE WAVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE W TOWARD THE WESTERN BASIN WHILE A NEW
TROPICAL WAVE ENTERS THE E CARIBBEAN ON MON.

...HISPANIOLA...

DRY SAHARAN AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREATER
ANTILLES AND ADJACENT WATERS...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR BUT HAZY
WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE 1200 UTC SANTO DOMINGO RAOB INDICATED
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF ONLY 1.26 INCHES AND A STRONG
CAPPING INVERSION AT 850 MB. DESPITE THE OVERALL SUPPRESSED
ENVIRONMENT...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ERUPTED OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF EASTERN HAITI AND CENTRAL DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER IN THE AREA OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS SHOULD RESULT IN DELAYED DEVELOPMENT OF
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH GENERALLY LESS COVERAGE THAN IS
TYPICALLY EXPECTED.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA DOMINATED
THE FLOW OVER THE ATLANTIC W OF 72W. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
BEING MONITORED OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST WAS SITUATED IN
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AT THE PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE. AN
SHARP MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS DIGGING SOUTHWARD OVER THE
ATLC N OF 26N BETWEEN 65W AND 72W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTED A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 31N61W TO 26N66W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WERE NOTED E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH N
OF 27N BETWEEN 55W AND 61W. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH EXTENDED FROM A
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 30N45W THROUGH 22N65W TO THE NW
CARIBBEAN. IN BETWEEN THE TWO LOW PRESSURE AREAS...A 1021 MB
HIGH SLOWLY DRIFTING S IS NEAR 27N70W. ELSEWHERE OVER THE
ATLANTIC...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH NEAR
33N41W EXTENDED A RIDGE TO 16N AND SUPPORTS GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
COBB

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