[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301050
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE DATA SHOW THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 150 NM E OF MELBOURNE FLORIDA IS SLOWLY
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WHILE DRIFTING SOUTH. ALTHOUGH UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE
LOW IS CURRENTLY GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN
150 NM IN S SEMICIRCLE. CONVECTION IS LIMITED ELSEWHERE AROUND
THE LOW. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REFER TO THE ATLC TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE MOVING PAST THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 17N61W TO 10N62W MOVING W AT 25 KT. THIS WAVE IS
WELL DEPICTED ON SSMI-TPW IMAGERY WHICH SHOWS MOISTURE CRESTING
NEAR THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS EAST OF THE
WAVE AXIS FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 59W AND 62W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
17N69W TO THE N COAST OF VENEZUELA AT 70W IS MOVING W AT 20 KT
WITH MINIMAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO CENTRAL AMERICA WITH AXIS ALONG 89W
HAS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OVER WATER IN WESTERN CARIBBEAN.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA NEAR 11N15W
TO 7N22W TO 5N38W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 5N38W AND CONTINUES TO
3N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS E OF 35W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION BETWEEN TEXAS/LOUISIANA IS
DRIFTING WESTWARD BENEATH A BUILDING MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE DOMINATES THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1019
MB HIGH JUST S OF NEW ORLEANS. LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS WERE NEAR
THE HIGH AND OVER MOST OF THE GULF E OF 93W. WINDS ARE MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY OVER THE WESTERN GULF...INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT
NEAR THE TEXAS COAST AND ELSEWHERE W OF 93W. FAIR SKIES PREVAIL
OVER MOST OF THE GULF.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW MODERATE MOIST CONDITIONS ADVANCING
WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN EAST OF THE TROPICAL WAVE
MENTIONED ABOVE ALONG 62W. A TONGUE OF VERY DRY SAHARAN AIR IS
MOVING WESTWARD IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING MOSTLY FAIR
BUT HAZY CONDITIONS IN MOST OF THE BASIN. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AND A MONSOON TROUGH INTO NORTHERN
COLOMBIA IS MAINTAINING 20-25 KT TRADES IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
AND 10-20 KT WINDS IN THE WESTERN AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...

DRY SAHARAN AIRMASS CONTINUES ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES
SUPPORTING FAIR BUT HAZY WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE CONTINUED
PRESENCE OF THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER IN THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 1
TO 2 DAYS SHOULD RESULT IN DELAYED DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION WITH GENERALLY LESS COVERAGE THAN TYPICALLY EXPECTED.


...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SHARP MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD OVER THE
ATLC AND EXTENDS FROM 33N54W TO 26N65W. THIS TROUGH IS PRODUCING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE TROUGH AXIS. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION NEAR 28N42W THROUGH 23N63W INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 35N39W
EXTENDING WSW TO THE GREATER ANTILLES SUPPORTS GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE ATLANTIC WITH THE NOTABLE
EXCEPTION OF ACTIVE CONVECTION ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MUNDELL

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