[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261054
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS SOUTH OF 14N ALONG 38W...
MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NEARBY
ITCZ PRECIPITATION.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N70W TO 12N73W IN
NORTHERN COLOMBIA...MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS MINIMAL.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W TO 9N24W.
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N24W TO 7N29W TO 9N39W TO 5N54W IN
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ALONG THE COAST
OF AFRICA FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN E OF 22W. SCATTERED MODERATE
WITHIN 120 NM N OF CONVERGENCE ZONE BETWEEN 38W AND 54W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OKLAHOMA INTO COASTAL TEXAS
AND NORTHEASTERN COASTAL MEXICO. ACTIVE CONVECTIVE IS OCCURRING
FROM 21N TO 26N BETWEEN 93W AND 99W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
COVERS MOST OF WESTERN PORTION. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF FLORIDA...TO A 1020 MB STATIONARY HIGH NEAR
29N87W. THE RIDGE CONTINUES FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO THE UPPER
TEXAS GULF COAST.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND HISPANIOLA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS MINIMAL ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN SW CARIBBEAN IS
BEING SUSTAINED BY A MONSOON TROUGH ANALYZED ACROSS NW COLOMBIA
TO SOUTHERN PANAMA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MONSOON TROUGH SUPPORTS 15-20 KT TRADES EXCEPT LIGHTER WINDS OF
AROUND 10-15 KT IN N CENTRAL AND NW SECTIONS. THE TROPICAL WAVE
DESCRIBED ABOVE IS FORECAST TO REACH NEAR 77W/78W SOUTH OF
JAMAICA FRI.

...HISPANIOLA...

THE COMBINATION OF MOIST AIR IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AND DIFFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPORTING LATE AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING CONVECTION
OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI AND DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. LITTLE CHANGE IN
THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N75W TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR
26N74W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 33N53W TO 27N60W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM A 32N38W TO 25N48W TO 18N60W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N36W
TO 27N71W. THE RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TO A 1020
MB HIGH IN THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. THE RIDGE IS ALLOWING FOR S-SW
WINDS OF 5-10 KT W OF THE BAHAMAS...AND E-SE WINDS OF 5-15 KT TO
THE E OF THE BAHAMAS. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT WESTWARD TO
NEAR 33N40W LATER TODAY WHILE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MUNDELL

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