[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261820
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS S OF 13N ALONG 39W...MOVING W
AT 15 KNOTS. NO CONVECTION WITH THE WAVE.

CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N71W TO 11N73W IN
NORTHERN COLOMBIA...MOVING W 15-20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS MINIMAL.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SENEGAL NEAR 13N17W TO 8N24W.
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N24W TO 7N30W TO 9N38W THEN RESUMES
FROM 9N40W TO 7N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 48W-56W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NW GULF N OF 24N W OF 92W.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SW TO THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE. UPPER LEVER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION
FROM 21N-27N BETWEEN 93W AND 98W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF FLORIDA...TO A 1019 MB STATIONARY HIGH NEAR
29N87W. THE RIDGE CONTINUES FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO THE UPPER
TEXAS GULF COAST.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND HISPANIOLA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN
BASIN. CONVECTION IS MINIMAL ACROSS THE REGION. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IN SW CARIBBEAN IS BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT FLOW. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MONSOON TROUGH SUPPORTS 20-25 KT TRADES ACROSS THE S CENTRAL AND
SW CARIBBEAN AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS...OTHERWISE WINDS
AROUND 10-15 KT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE
TROPICAL WAVE DESCRIBED ABOVE IS FORECAST TO REACH NEAR 77W/78W
SOUTH OF JAMAICA FRI.

...HISPANIOLA...

THE COMBINATION OF MOIST AIR IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AND DIFFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPORTING LATE AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING CONVECTION
OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI AND DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. LITTLE CHANGE IN
THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N67WN75W TO AN UPPER LOW
NEAR 25N73W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
NEAR 32N53W TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 13N34W TO 29N27W.
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N36W
TO 27N67W. THE RIDGE IS ALLOWING FOR S-SW WINDS OF 5-10 KT W OF
THE BAHAMAS...AND E-SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT TO THE E OF THE
BAHAMAS. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT WESTWARD TO NEAR 33N40W
LATER TODAY WHILE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
DGS


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net