[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260601
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS SOUTH OF 14N ALONG 36W...
MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NEARBY
ITCZ PRECIPITATION.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N67W TO 11N70W IN
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 20 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS MINIMAL.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N17W TO
9N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N22W TO 3N46W NEAR THE COAST OF
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL.  CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 7N TO 11N
BETWEEN E OF 20W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM N
OF CONVERGENCE ZONE BETWEEN 34W AND 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OKLAHOMA INTO COASTAL TEXAS
AND NORTHEASTERN COASTAL MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH IS FROM 23N96W
TO 20N97W. ACTIVE CONVECTIVE WITH SCATTERED STRONG FROM 22N TO
26N BETWEEN 94W AND 100W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE COVERS MOST OF
WESTERN PORTION. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTH CAROLINA
TO FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N84W. CONVECTION NEAR
THE FLORIDA COAST HAS DIMINISHED IN THE DIURNAL CYCLE.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF FLORIDA...TO
A 1019 MB STATIONARY HIGH NEAR 28N86W. THE RIDGE CONTINUES FROM
THE HIGH CENTER TO THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND HISPANIOLA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG ALONG SOUTH COAST OF CUBA IS DECREASING. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IN SW CARIBBEAN IS BEING SUSTAINED BY THE MONSOON
TROUGH ANALYZED ACROSS NW COLOMBIA TO SOUTHERN PANAMA. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH SUPPORTS
15-20 KT TRADES EXCEPT FOR LIGHTER WINDS OF 10-15 KT IN THE N
CENTRAL AND NW SECTIONS. THE TROPICAL WAVE DESCRIBED ABOVE IS
FORECAST TO REACH NEAR 71W/72W THU MORNING...AND TO THE VICINITY
OF JAMAICA AND SOUTHWARD FRI.

...HISPANIOLA...

THE COMBINATION OF MOIST AIR IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AND DIFFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPORTING ACTIVE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI AND INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MAKES SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N76W TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR
27N74W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 33N54W TO 29N55W...TO 25N61W. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N43W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
TO 25N46W TO 15N57W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N35W
TO 27N71W. THE RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TO A 1019
MB HIGH IN THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. THE RIDGE IS ALLOWING FOR S-SW
WINDS OF 5-10 KT W OF THE BAHAMAS...AND E-SE WINDS OF 5-15 KT TO
THE E OF THE BAHAMAS. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT WESTWARD TO
NEAR 33N40W LATER TODAY WHILE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MUNDELL


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