[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 260005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 13N33W 10N34W 6N35W
23W/24W FROM 15N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NEARBY ITCZ PRECIPITATION.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N66W 14N69W...TO 11N70W
IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 20 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...A CELL OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS
ALONG 10N BETWEEN 70W AND LAKE MARACAIBO IN VENEZUELA.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 9N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N22W TO
9N32W 7N40W...TO 3N51W AT THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG ALONG THE COAST OF
AFRICA FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 11W AND 15W. ISOLATED MODERATE
WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 5N14W 7N18W 8N30W
11N40W 4N51W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
OKLAHOMA...INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS OF TEXAS FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...AND EVENTUALLY INTO NORTHEASTERN COASTAL MEXICO. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 24N94W 20N97W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 26N BETWEEN 90W AND 100W.
THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO...AND PARTS OF COASTAL LOUISIANA...FROM THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS NORTHWARD...AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
TEXAS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 26N SOUTHWARD FROM 91W WESTWARD IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS MEXICO FROM ITS
CENTRAL SECTIONS SOUTHWARD...ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...EVENTUALLY CURVING
TOWARD CENTRAL AMERICA...AND INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM GEORGIA AND
SOUTH CAROLINA...TO FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N84W.
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE TROUGH COVERS THE
FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 23N NORTHWARD BETWEEN THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST AND 87W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG COVERS FLORIDA FROM LAKE OKEECHOBEE SOUTHWARD.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 30N70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF FLORIDA...TO A 1021 MB GULF OF
MEXICO HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N86W. THE RIDGE
CONTINUES FROM THE 1021 MB HIGH CENTER TO THE UPPER TEXAS GULF
COAST.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
ICAO STATIONS...KBQX WITH A VISIBILITY OF 3 MILES OR LESS AND
FOG...KVAF...KGUL WITH A VISIBILITY OF 2 MILES OR LESS AND
FOG...KHQI WITH A VISIBILITY OF 1 MILE OR LESS AND FOG...KGBK...
AND KEIR.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND RAINSHOWERS COVER THE COASTAL PLAINS
FROM TEXAS TO ALABAMA. MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS OF FLORIDA WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN
SOUTH FLORIDA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8
FEET...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...TO THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE
WEST OF 92W.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND HISPANIOLA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA AWAY FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. A SEPARATE
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...WITH THE WINDS
STARTING IN MEXICO...AND EVENTUALLY CROSSING THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STRONG IN CUBA BETWEEN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF CUBA AND 79W.
EARLIER CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT WAS IN THE WATERS BETWEEN
JAMAICA AND CUBA HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. EARLIER CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION THAT WAS IN NORTHEASTERN HAITI AND IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS WEAKENED AND
DISSIPATED. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 17N TO 20N FROM 80W WESTWARD.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N75W IN COLOMBIA...8N78W IN
PANAMA...8N81W IN PANAMA...BEYOND 8N87W INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG
IN COLOMBIA FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W...AND FROM 4N TO
7N BETWEEN 75W AND 77W. NUMEROUS STRONG ALSO COVERS WESTERN
PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...AND THE COASTAL PLAINS IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA AND IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 82W
AND 85W.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS
CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN BARAHONA AND SANTO
DOMINGO. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE IN LA ROMANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
PUERTO PLATA. THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN
HAITI SHOW FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...WITH THE
TROUGH THAT CURRENTLY CUTS ACROSS CUBA. THE TROUGH EVENTUALLY
WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND END UP BEING NEARLY ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA.
EXPECT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW FOR THE REST OF THE OVERALL 48 HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT EAST-TO-
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO YUCATAN CHANNEL RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT
SOUTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA WITH A
CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...THAT WILL
START NEAR 20N57W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND END UP JUST
OFFSHORE TO THE NORTHEAST OF HISPANIOLA...BY THE END OF THE
OVERALL 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN
AREAS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN SURFACE TRADE
WIND FLOW. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD
ENDING AT 25/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC...ARE 0.13 IN TRINIDAD...AND 0.12 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO
RICO.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 9
TO 13 FEET FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W. EXPECT ALSO
WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET ELSEWHERE
FROM 9.5N TO 17N BETWEEN 68W AND 83W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN
CONSISTS OF THE 6-HOUR FORECAST...EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND
SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 17N TO THE WEST OF
85W...INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
PASSING THROUGH 32N76W TO A 27N74W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO 23N75W...TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE TROUGH COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM CUBA NORTHWARD BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 27N72W 22N75W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 21N
TO 29N BETWEEN 66W AND 74W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 26N TO 30N
BETWEEN 74W AND 78W. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE
PERIOD ENDING AT 25/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC...ARE 0.61 IN BERMUDA...AND 0.05 IN FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS.


A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N54W TO
29N55W...TO 25N61W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N43W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 25N46W 15N57W...INTO NORTHEASTERN
COASTAL VENEZUELA.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR...TO 33N34W...TO 30N56W 30N70W. THE RIDGE CONTINUES FROM
30N70W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF FLORIDA...TO A 1021 MB GULF
OF MEXICO HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N86W. THE RIDGE
CONTINUES FROM THE 1021 MB HIGH CENTER TO THE UPPER TEXAS GULF
COAST.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9
FEET FROM 8N TO 18N BETWEEN 42W AND 55W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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