[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250601
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

ATLC TROPICAL WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ ALONG 29W MOVING W NEAR
20 KT. CONVECTIVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS CONFINED TO NEAR
THE ITCZ AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SE CARIBBEAN SEA EXTENDING FROM 15N62W TO
10N66W MOVING W-NW NEAR 20-25 KT. DRY AIR AND DUST FROM A
SAHARAN AIR LAYER OUTBREAK IS HINDERING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE...AND PRODUCING HAZY SKIES IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE COAST OF SENEGAL
NEAR 12N16W TO 8N28W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM NEAR 7N30W THROUGH A
1014 MB LOW NEAR 6N38W TO 4N51W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45
NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 38W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER MEXICO INFLUENCED BY A TROPICAL
WAVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT PRODUCED
EXTENSIVE CONVECTION W OF 93W LATE TUE. RETURN FLOW ADVECTING
MOIST AIR FROM THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE WESTERN GULF IS FUELING
DIURNAL BURSTS OF SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. A
WEAK RIDGE ALOFT COVERS THE GULF W OF 90W. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALONG
THE NORTHERN GULF IS SUPPORTING A FEW HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
ELSEWHERE...SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR
27N84W PROVIDES WEAK ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE
BASIN. HIGH PRESSURE AND RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS...ADVECTING MOIST AIR TO THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST AS WELL AS THE W GULF TO FUEL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS MOST OF THE BASIN.
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPORTING HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER
EASTERN CUBA AND WESTERN HISPANIOLA DURING PEAK DIURNAL HEATING.
A BROAD AREA OF DIVERGENT FLOW OVER THE MONSOON TROUGH SUPPORTS
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND A FEW TSTMS S OF 15N W OF 75W.
GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WED MORNING IN THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FAST MOVING TROPICAL WAVE
MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION. TRADES AROUND 15 KT
DOMINATE THE REST OF REGION EXCEPT S OF 16N BETWEEN 66W AND 79W.

...HISPANIOLA...

A COMBINATION OF DEEP MOIST AIR ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN WESTERN HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ISLAND. DIURNAL TYPE
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THU MORNING.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS
SUPPORTING A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 27N73W...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A 1014 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED IN
THE ITCZ NEAR 5N38W. THIS LOW LIES BENEATH THE AFRICAN EASTERLY
JET WHICH MAY BE INDUCING A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT THE SURFACE.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IS
OCCURRING WITHIN 30-45 NM NORTH OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE BOUNDARY
BETWEEN 38W AND 45W. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM A 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 34N38W SOUTHWESTWARD
TO THE BAHAMAS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MUNDELL


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net