[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUN 24 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE ATLC EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 14N27W TO 5N28W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. CONVECTIVE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS CONFINED TO ITS SOUTHERN ENVIRONMENT
NEARBY THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE SE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 15N61W TO 7N63W MOVING W-NW NEAR 20-25 KT DURING THE LAST
24 HOURS. SHOWERS ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
FARTHER NORTH REMNANT DRY AIR AND DUST FROM A FORMER SAHARAN AIR
LAYER EVENT IS HINDERING CONVECTION BUT SUPPORTING HAZINESS IN
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS MEXICO WITH AXIS EXTENDING INTO
THE E PACIFIC WATERS. SEE THE MIATWDEP FOR MORE INFORMATION.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE COAST OF SENEGAL
NEAR 12N16W TO 11N18W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 10N19W TO E OF A
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 7N26W...THEN RESUMES WEST OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR
6N29W TO 5N36W AND CONTINUES W OF A 1012 MB LOW FROM 3N40W TO
3N51W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 22W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IS OVER MEXICO BEING INFLUENCED BY A
TROPICAL WAVE AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. FURTHERMORE...RETURN
FLOW HAS BEEN ADVECTING VERY MOIST AIR FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO THE
WESTERN GULF TO ASSIST FUELING THE SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND
TSTMS FROM 19N-26N W OF 94W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS A WEAK RIDGE
COVERS THE GULF W OF 90W WHILE THE BASE OF A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE NE GULF. THIS IS GENERATING DIFFLUENT
FLOW ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COASTLINE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED HEAVY
SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THIS REGION. REMNANT SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE REMAINS IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A
1019 MB HIGH NEAR 26N84W PROVIDES SE WIND FLOW OF 5-15 KT ACROSS
THE BASIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
MOIST AIR ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AS WELL AS THE W GULF TO
FUEL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEAS EXCEPT THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE BASIN WHERE A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED. THIS TROUGHINESS ALOFT ALONG WITH A VERY
MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. FARTHER EAST THE FLOW
IS DIFFLUENT ALOFT AND SUPPORT HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER
EASTERN CUBA AND WESTERN HISPANIOLA. OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN...DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT AS WELL AS THE MONSOON TROUGH
SUPPORT A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AS WELL AS
ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 15N W OF 75W. OTHERWISE...A TROPICAL WAVE IS
MOVING ACROSS THE SE BASIN. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE
FOR MORE DETAILS. TRADES OF 15 KNOT DOMINATE THE REGION...EXCEPT
S OF 16N BETWEEN 66W AND 79W WHERE WIND INCREASES TO 20-25 KT.
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THIS REGION WED
MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...

A COMBINATION OF VERY MOIST AIR ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND
TSTMS OVER WESTERN HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ISLAND. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH WED MORNING.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR SW N ATLC AND SUPPORTS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT WATERS. FARTHER EAST...THE
NORTHERN EXTENSION OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORT
A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 27N73W WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A 1012 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ NEAR
4N38W AND EXTENDS A TROUGH NORTHWARD TO 10N37W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS FROM 3N-6N
BETWEEN 36W-42W. STREAMFUNCTION ANALYSIS DATA AT 700 HPA SHOW
THAT THIS LOW LIES BENEATH THE AFRICAN EASTERLY JET WHICH MAY BE
INDUCING THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT THE SURFACE. ELSEWHERE AT
THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 33N38W SOUTHWARD TO 17N AND WESTWARD INTO THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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