[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241800
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUN 24 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...GALE WARNING IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO
14N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W FOR NE TO E WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KT AND
SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. THE HIGHEST WINDS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A 1402 UTC ASCAT PASS MISSED THE CORE OF
THE STRONGEST WINDS BUT CAPTURED 25 TO 30 KT WINDS NEAR
12.5N74W. REFER TO MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 25W FROM 06N TO 15N IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO
15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS CONFINED TO THE
NEARBY MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 05N60W TO 17N54W IS MOVING WESTWARD CLOSE TO
25 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE WAS ADJUSTED
WESTWARD ON THE ANALYSIS BASED ON EASTERLY WAVE DIAGNOSTICS...
LOW CLOUD MOTIONS AND A 1402 UTC ASCAT PASS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO...ALONG 94W/95W FROM 23N SOUTHWARD...MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. MOST OF THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE HAS DISSIPATED OVER WATER
WITH NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER INTERIOR MEXICO IN ADVANCE
OF THE WAVE. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SUGGESTS THAT THE WAVE MAY BE FRACTURING WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
INLAND OVER MEXICO MOVING MORE TO THE NORTH. THE BULK OF THE
WAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA TONIGHT
OR EARLY WED.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF MAURITANIA
NEAR 18N16W TO 11N24W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 08N27W TO 05N40W
TO 02N50W. NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 27W AND
30W...AND FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 32W AND 34W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER
SIDE 10N16W 7N22W 6N30W 5N39W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID TO UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE CONUS AND
SUBTROPICAL AREAS WITH A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO A BASE ALONG THE LOUISIANA
COAST. A LEADING SMALLER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ALABAMA
SE TO NEAR 26N85W WAS LIFTING TO THE NE. AN EXTENSION OF AN EAST
PACIFIC RIDGE/ANTICYCLONE COVERED THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. ALTHOUGH
THE FLOW WAS DIFFLUENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES OVER THE EASTERN
GULF...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING OWING TO A
STABLE AIR MASS AND RELATIVELY HIGH SURFACE PRESSURES. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK RIDGE IS ALONG 29N FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO
THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST. TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...ALONG 95W FROM 23N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGESTS THAT
THE WAVE MAY BE FRACTURING WITH A SURFACE TROUGH INLAND OVER
MEXICO MOVING MORE TO THE NORTH. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE
OCCURRING ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO. MOSTLY FAIR
SKIES WITH PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WERE NOTED ELSEWHERE
OVER THE GULF. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ALONG SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARIES 60-90 NM INLAND OF THE TEXAS GULF COAST AND
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEAS EXCEPT THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE BASIN WHERE A WEAK MID
LEVEL TROUGH WAS NOTED. THE ANTICYCLONE WAS CENTERED NEAR
12N78W. THE FLOW WAS STRONGLY DIFFLUENT OVER THE SOUTHWEST
CARIBBEAN WHERE A COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL WIND CONVERGENCE
...OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AND OVERALL INSTABILITY WAS RESULTING IN
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM EITHER
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.5N77W TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR
BLUEFIELDS. AN AREA OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ON THE E
SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONE WAS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION IN THAT PART
OF THE BASIN. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER PASSES
INDICATED A MORE NORMAL TRADE WIND REGIME WITH 20-25 KNOT WINDS
S OF 16N BETWEEN 68W AND 78W...AND 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS WITHIN 90
NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION ABOVE FOR GALE WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA.

AN EXTENSION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 09N75W IN COLOMBIA
AND ACROSS PANAMA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...

PATCHES OF BROKEN CUMULUS AND TOWERING CUMULUS WERE DEVELOPING
OVER THE INTERIOR OF HISPANIOLA AS THE DIURNAL PEAK HEATING IS
IN FULL SWING. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO ERUPT OVER OROGRAPHICALLY
FAVORED AREAS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE OVERALL AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN THE SUBTROPICS CARRIES OVER
INTO THE ATLANTIC BASIN WHERE A WESTERN ATLANTIC MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 33N65W AND IS FRACTURING INTO A
MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 27N77W.
ANOTHER MID TO UPPER LEVELS CYCLONES WAS LOCATED NEAR 27N48W
WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO A BASE NEAR 12N58W. A
NARROW RIDGE WAS INDICATED BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES EXTENDING
FROM 32N58W TO 20N68W TO AN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE FAR SW
CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N78W. THE FIRST TROUGH SUPPORTED A STATIONARY
FRONT THAT IS ALONG 32N BETWEEN 70W AND 79W...AND THEN
CONTINUING NORTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTH CAROLINA. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 26N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 59W AND 68W. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 32N36W...THROUGH 32N50W
29N57W AND 27N69W...WESTWARD IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA...TO THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 17N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND FLORIDA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
COBB


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