[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

EMWIN Server emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Wed Jun 25 06:30:52 CDT 2014


AXNT20 KNHC 251134
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. AN ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 0250 UTC
SHOWED 30-35 KT WINDS CENTERED NEAR 12N74.5W ASSOCIATED WITH A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE BAHAMAS
AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH TO 20-25 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLC TROPICAL WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ ALONG 32W IS MOVING W
NEAR 20 KT. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS
INCLUDED IN THE LARGER SCALE CONVECTION OF THE ITCZ AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SE CARIBBEAN SEA EXTENDING FROM 16N66W TO
10N70W MOVING W-NW NEAR 20-25 KT. DRY AIR AND DUST FROM A
SAHARAN AIR LAYER OUTBREAK IS HINDERING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE...AND PRODUCING HAZY SKIES IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE COAST OF SENEGAL
NEAR 12N16W TO 9N23W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM NEAR 9N23W THROUGH A
1014 MB LOW NEAR 6N40W TO 2N51W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 29W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER MEXICO INFLUENCED BY A TROPICAL
WAVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT PRODUCED
EXTENSIVE CONVECTION W OF 93W LATE TUE. RETURN FLOW ADVECTING
MOIST AIR FROM THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE WESTERN GULF IS FUELING
DIURNAL BURSTS OF SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. A
WEAK RIDGE ALOFT COVERS THE GULF W OF 90W. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALONG
THE NORTHERN GULF IS SUPPORTING A FEW HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
ELSEWHERE...SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF
FLORIDA PROVIDES WEAK ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE
BASIN. HIGH PRESSURE AND RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS...ADVECTING MOIST AIR TO THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST AS WELL AS THE W GULF TO FUEL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS MOST OF THE BASIN.
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPORTING HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER
EASTERN CUBA AND WESTERN HISPANIOLA DURING PEAK DIURNAL HEATING.
A BROAD AREA OF DIVERGENT FLOW OVER THE MONSOON TROUGH SUPPORTS
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND A FEW TSTMS S OF 15N W OF 75W.
STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING.
A FAST MOVING TROPICAL WAVE MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES
SECTION WILL CONTINUE TO RACE ACROSS THE BASIN S OF 15N-16N
TODAY. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL DOMINATE THE REST OF REGION.

...HISPANIOLA...

A COMBINATION OF DEEP MOIST AIR ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN WESTERN HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ISLAND. DIURNAL TYPE
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THU MORNING.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS
SUPPORTING A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 26N76W...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT WESTWARD IN THE NE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A 1014 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ NEAR 6N40W. THIS
LOW LIES BENEATH THE AFRICAN EASTERLY JET WHICH MAY BE INDUCING
A WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR THE SURFACE. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IS OCCURRING WITHIN 45 NM
NORTH OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE ALL ALONG THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN 29W
AND 48W. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1030
MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 34N37W SOUTHWEST TO THE BAHAMAS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MUNDELL


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