[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 231104
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUN 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N40W 10N44W 4N45W
MOVING WESTWARD 25 TO 30 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N TO
20N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. THE NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS IN THE ITCZ IS CLOSE TO THE WAVE...
WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 9N43W 7N47W 7N49W 6N52W..

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N87W IN THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...ALONG THE COAST
OF BELIZE...PASSING THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS...THROUGH
WESTERN HONDURAS...AND BEYOND EL SALVADOR...INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THIS WAVE IS
MOVING THROUGH A PRE-EXISTING AREA OF MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH A TROUGH. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE AREA THAT EXTENDS FROM SOUTH FLORIDA
INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...BEYOND HONDURAS...INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE IN GENERAL...IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM 15N
NORTHWARD FROM 70W WESTWARD. SCATTERED STRONG IS OFF THE COAST
OF WESTERN SECTIONS OF HAITI.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL
NEAR 14N17W TO 7N25W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N25W TO 5N30W
6N37W 5N42W 3N49W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG
WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 9N43W 7N47W 7N49W
6N52W...AND IN GUYANA FROM 6N TO 7N BETWEEN 58W IN THE COASTAL
WATERS AND 60W INLAND. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 4N TO
5N BETWEEN 22W AND 23W...AND FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 29W AND 33W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
MEXICO NORTHEASTWARD...ACROSS THE GULF WATERS ALONG A NORTHEAST-
TO-SOUTHWEST LINE...BEYOND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...INTO THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN. MULTILAYERED MOISTURE COVERS MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN THREE-FOURTHS OR MORE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 25N97W
25N90W 27N83W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 26N63W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...TO 25N85W IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE WEST
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

ICAO STATION KAXO...GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA...IS REPORTING
RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER IN ITS LATEST OBSERVATION. NO LOW LEVEL
CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE AT THE STATIONS THAT
ARE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING...AND LIGHT RAIN IN HARLINGEN...COVER
THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE
MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS. MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN
AREA. FAIR SKIES ARE BETWEEN HOUSTON THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF
COASTAL PLAINS. LIGHT RAIN IS BEING REPORTED AT THE NAVAL AIR
STATION IN NEW ORLEANS...AND IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
COASTAL MISSISSIPPI. A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AT
THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN MILTON FLORIDA IN THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. A LOW CLOUD CEILING A VISIBILITY OF 1 MILE OR LESS
WITH FOG ARE BEING REPORTED IN CRESTVIEW FLORIDA. A HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED IN VALPARAISO AND TALLAHASSEE.
A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED IN SARASOTA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...THE 24-HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL WAVE TO THE SOUTH OF 21N
ALONG 92W. EXPECT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 23N BETWEEN 90W AND
92W.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTH FLORIDA
INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...BEYOND HONDURAS...INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS
ALONG 21N87W IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...ALONG THE COAST OF BELIZE...PASSING THROUGH THE GULF
OF HONDURAS...THROUGH WESTERN HONDURAS...AND BEYOND EL
SALVADOR...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...MOVING WESTWARD 10
TO 15 KNOTS. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH A PRE-EXISTING AREA OF
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH A TROUGH. A
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE AREA THAT EXTENDS
FROM SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...BEYOND
HONDURAS...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN GENERAL...IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM 15N NORTHWARD FROM 70W WESTWARD. SCATTERED
STRONG IS OFF THE COAST OF WESTERN SECTIONS OF HAITI.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO AND IN
PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW
WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...RELATED TO A VENEZUELA-BEYOND-HISPANIOLA
RIDGE. PURELY ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA TODAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL
FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT PURE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL PASS ON
TOP OF HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT
SOUTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N75W IN COLOMBIA...THROUGH EASTERN
PANAMA...INTO NORTH CENTRAL COSTA RICA NEAR 10N84W...BEYOND
10N87W...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA FROM
2N TO 11N BETWEEN 74W AND 91W...COVERING PARTS OF NORTHERN
COLOMBIA...THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF
COLOMBIA AND TO THE SOUTH OF PANAMA...ACROSS PANAMA INTO COSTA
RICA...INTO SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN
AREAS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN SURFACE TRADE
WIND FLOW.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 9
TO 11 FEET FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 72W AND 75W. EXPECT ALSO EAST
WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 12 FEET ELSEWHERE FROM
11N TO 17N BETWEEN 65W AND 80W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN
CONSISTS OF...A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG THE COAST OF YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND BELIZE...EXPECT EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE WEST OF
85W...INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 31N64W TO 28N64W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IS TO
THE WEST OF THE TROUGH...FROM 22N TO 30N BETWEEN 60W AND 72W.

A LONG-WAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N46W TO 26N50W AND TO
15N56W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
15N TO 30N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 32N12W TO 25N17W AND 21N24W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION FROM 27N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 33W.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 30N FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS TO
30N53W...26N63W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...TO 25N85W IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE WEST
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...THE 6-HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 45W
TO THE SOUTH OF 12N. EXPECT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 FEET FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 45W AND 48W.
EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 FEET
ELSEWHERE FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 45W AND 57W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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