[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON JUN 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N39W 12N41W 6N41W
MOVING WESTWARD 25 TO 30 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 360
NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 19N32W 15N41W 9N46W 7N52W.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N85W...INTO
CENTRAL HONDURAS...BEYOND WESTERN NICARAGUA...INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THIS WAVE IS
MOVING THROUGH A PRE-EXISTING AREA OF MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH A TROUGH. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE AREA THAT EXTENDS FROM SOUTH FLORIDA
INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...BEYOND HONDURAS...INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG IS MOVING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL HONDURAS INTO NORTHWESTERN
NICARAGUA. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND STILL POSSIBLY
LINGERING RAINSHOWERS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 12N NORTHWARD
FROM 80W WESTWARD.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF MAURITANIA
NEAR 17N16W TO 10N19W AND 7N23W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N23W
TO 6N30W 8N38W 7N44W...INTO FRENCH GUIANA AND GUYANA NEAR 4N55W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 8N TO 10N
BETWEEN 19W AND 21W...AND WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
9N42W 7N44W 6N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 3N
TO 5N BETWEEN 26W AND 32W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 33W AND 40W. ISOLATED MODERATE
FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 18W AND 22W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
MEXICO NORTHEASTWARD...ALONG THE COASTLINE OF THE U.S.A. GULF OF
MEXICO COAST...BEYOND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...INTO THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN. MULTILAYERED MOISTURE COVERS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WARMING
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND REMNANT SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 28N TO 30N BETWEEN 81W AND 88W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 26N70W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...TO A 1016 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N89W...TOWARD THE UPPER
TEXAS GULF COAST.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

NO LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN COVER THE MIDDLE TEXAS
GULF COASTAL PLAINS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDINESS COVER THE
REST OF TEXAS...NORTHWARD. RAIN IS BEING REPORTED AT THE NAVAL
AIR STATION IN NEW ORLEANS...AND IN PARTS OF THE COASTAL AREAS
OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...BEYOND HONDURAS...INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG
21N85W...INTO CENTRAL HONDURAS...BEYOND WESTERN NICARAGUA...INTO
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THIS
WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH A PRE-EXISTING AREA OF MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH A TROUGH. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE AREA THAT EXTENDS FROM SOUTH
FLORIDA INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...BEYOND HONDURAS...INTO
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG IS MOVING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL HONDURAS INTO NORTHWESTERN
NICARAGUA. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND STILL POSSIBLY
LINGERING RAINSHOWERS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 12N NORTHWARD
FROM 80W WESTWARD.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED
IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW
WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...RELATED TO A VENEZUELA-BEYOND-HISPANIOLA
RIDGE. PURELY ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA TODAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL
FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT PURE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL PASS ON
TOP OF HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT
SOUTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N74W IN COLOMBIA...THROUGH EASTERN
PANAMA TO 11N83W...ACROSS THE BORDER OF COSTA RICA AND
NICARAGUA...BEYOND 10N88W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN COLOMBIA AND
VENEZUELA FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W...AND FROM 7N TO
11N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W...SPANNING THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN
AREAS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN SURFACE TRADE
WIND FLOW.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT....THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG 85W. EXPECT NORTHEAST
TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM
11.5N TO 15N BETWEEN 69W AND 76W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR
LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 17N
BETWEEN 73W AND 80W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF...EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO
THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE WEST OF 85W...INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 31N64W TO 28N64W.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

A LONG-WAVE TROUGH 32N46W 26N50W AND 15N40W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN
37W AND 65W.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 33N13W TO 24N21W AND TO 20N28W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 33W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ROUGHLY IS ALONG 29W FROM THE CANARY
ISLANDS TO 28N39W...28N52W...AND 26N62W...TO SOUTH FLORIDA. THE
RIDGE CONTINUES FROM 26N62W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...TO
THE FLORIDA KEYS.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...THE 24-HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
50W. EXPECT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS 8 TO 9 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 47W AND 54W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net