[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 222327
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN JUN 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 13N38W
TO 6N29W MOVING W 25 TO 30 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. ALTHOUGH
THIS WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE
AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...THERE IS
NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 20N84W TO INLAND
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 16N86W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE
THAT COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS BENEATH AN UPPER TROUGH
WHICH IS ENHANCING CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150
NM OF LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 22N81W TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR
16N85W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 12N16W TO 6N22W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG
5N26W TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 7N37W THEN RESUMES W OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 7N41W AND CONTINUES TO INLAND OVER SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 3N51W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF W
AFRICA FROM 10N-13N E OF 17W. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
7N-10N BETWEEN 12W-18W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
90 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 41W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF THIS EVENING ANCHORED INLAND
OVER SW MEXICO AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH TAMPICO MEXICO
TO TAMPA BAY FLORIDA AND A E/W SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1017
MB HIGH NEAR 26N90W. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF IS SPREADING
DEBRIS CLOUDS WITH A POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE N GULF N OF 28N. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER CUBA ARE
SPREADING N INTO THE SE GULF WATERS WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST
BETWEEN 81W-85W. SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
REGION THROUGH MON. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL FORM IN THE S/CENTRAL
GULF AND MOVE TO THE NW GULF MON NIGHT THROUGH THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW EXTENDS FROM NEAR GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WHILE
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM N VENEZUELA ACROSS PUERTO RICO INTO THE
W ATLC. ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE W
CARIBBEAN E OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND COUPLED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE ARE GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 22N81W TO OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA NEAR 16N85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING. FRESH TO STRONG
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CARIBBEAN E OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS LATE TUE.

...HISPANIOLA...
LINGERING MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH THE TRADE
WINDS ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MID TO UPPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE ISLAND
THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS COUPLED WITH THE HIGH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE AFTERNOON SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC
ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO 28N66W. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING
DIFFLUENT FLOW TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER
E CUBA E OF 80W AND THE UPPER FLOW IS DRAWING DEBRIS CLOUDS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN CUBA AND THE BAHAMA
ISLANDS. AN UPPER TROUGH N OF THE AREA IS CREATING A SECOND AREA
OF DIFFLUENCE THAT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 65W-71W. THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH
NEAR 29N38W. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE
MID-WEEK.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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