[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 221748
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN JUN 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 06N34W TO 16N34W MOVING W AT 20-25
KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS IN THE CLOUD FIELD THAT
COINCIDES WITH GLOBAL MODEL INDICATED 700 MB TROUGHING AND 850
MB RELATIVE VORTICITY FIELDS. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE
EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC OFFSHORE ZONES BY EARLY TUESDAY IMPACTING
THE LESSER ANTILLES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
CONVECTION REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS WITH ISOLATED
MODERATE FROM 06N-09N BETWEEN 31W-37W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N84W TO 20N83W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE BENEATH THE INFLUENCE OF A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 83W. STRONG DEEP LAYER
ENVIRONMENTAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO HINDER ANY SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION AND ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO FRACTURE OFF TO THE NORTH AS THE
WAVE TRACKS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 80W-87W...AND FROM 09N-12N BETWEEN 80W-
84W. THESE AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE MOST LIKELY DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL LIFTING DYNAMICS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N17W TO
08N22W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
08N22W TO 06N28W TO 07N35W TO 03N47W TO 03N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-08W BETWEEN 37W-44W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-06N BETWEEN 51W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW INFLUENCES THE GULF BETWEEN A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
20N83W AND A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 19N102W WITH AXIS
EXTENDING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION.
OVERALL THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS
PROVIDING DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE TO MUCH OF THE GULF THIS
AFTERNOON FURTHER SUPPORTING SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING ALONG 25N
TO A 1016 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 25N89W. THE ONLY AREA OF
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OCCURRING AT THIS TIME IS A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH LOWER PRESSURE ANALYZED ACROSS
THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS AND THE CAROLINAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS
FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 82W-85W. OTHERWISE...GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO
MONDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GULF WATERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
NEAR 20N83W THAT EXTENDS A TROUGH AXIS SOUTHWARD ALONG 84W TO A
BROAD BASE OVER COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
ADVECT NORTHWARD ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS TROUGHING
AMIDST A TROPICAL WAVE PROGRESSING WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA AND PORTIONS OF THE NW CARIBBEAN. GIVEN THE AMPLE MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING FROM 15N-23N BETWEEN 72W-85W...AND ACROSS THE SW
CARIBBEAN S OF 12N BETWEEN 77W-84W. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH FAIR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON.

...HISPANIOLA...
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOISTURE AND
CLOUDINESS ADVECTING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST ALONG 84W. WITH
PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY...THE CHANCES FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS INCREASES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS WITH PEAK HEATING AND INSTABILITY. ANY ACTIVITY THAT FORMS
WILL LIKELY DIMINISH GRADUALLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGHING IS NOTED TO THE NORTH OF
THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH NEAR 31N73W THAT EXTENDS
TROUGHING SOUTHWEST OVER WESTERN CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA.
THIS AREA OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING SUPPORTS A 1010 MB LOW
CENTERED NEAR 36N69W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING W-SW TO THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST NEAR 33N79W. THE OVERALL AREA OF FRONTAL
TROUGHING EXTENDS TO 29N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
OCCURRING FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 70W-74W. FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 25N...HOWEVER LIFTING DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS
GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 24N-27N
BETWEEN 63W-73W. LASTLY...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 29N37W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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