[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221029
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
14N30W TO 7N30W MOVING W NEAR 20-25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
BOTH STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR
AND DRY AIR FROM A SAHARAN AIR LAYER OUTBREAK HINDER DEEP
CONVECTION AT THE TIME. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 120
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
20N78W TO 9N82W MOVING W NEAR 20-25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS IN A DIFFLUENCE ZONE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS WHICH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
N OF 14N BETWEEN 72W-83W AND S OF 11N BETWEEN 75W-84W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 11N15W TO 10N21W TO 8N20W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 8N21W TO E
OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 7N29W. IT THEN RESUMES W OF THE WAVE NEAR
7N32W AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N43W TO 4N51W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE
CONVECTION AND TSTMS IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 15W-18W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-8N W OF 32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF
WATERS...THUS SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1016 MB
HIGH NEAR 27N91W. THIS HIGH IS PROVIDING E-SE WIND FLOW OF 5-15
KT ACROSS THE BASIN W OF 89W. FURTHER EAST...A MID-UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE FAR EASTERN GULF TO A PORTION OF THE
SW N ATLC ENHANCES ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 29N E OF 84W.
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT MAINTAIN THE
GULF WITH CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 21N92W TO 14N94W
WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT IN THIS REGION OF THE
GULF. SURFACE RIDGING IS GOING TO PERSIST ACROSS THE BASIN
DURING THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS MAINTAINING MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER. HOWEVER...A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE CARIBBEAN
IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE BASIN BY TUE MORNING ENHANCING SHOWERS
STARTING MON NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH COVERING FROM THE FAR E GULF OF MEXICO TO THE
SW N ATLC EXTENDS S OVER THE FAR W CARIBBEAN WHILE THE REMAINDER
OF THE SEA CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE. A
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 81W IS BEING SUPPORTED BY THIS TROUGH ALOFT
WHILE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ENHANCES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
IT. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ACROSS E CUBA TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND
ENHANCES SHOWERS IN THIS REGION AS WELL AS HAITI. HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE N ATLC EXTENDS A RIDGE INTO THE NE BASIN THUS
INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA. WINDS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED REGION S OF 17N RANGE
FROM 20-25 KT WHILE A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORT WINDS OF
10-15 KT ELSEWHERE. REMNANT DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A SAHARAN
AIR LAYER OUTBREAK IS SUPPORTING HAZE AND DUSTY SKIES OVER THE E-
SE BASIN. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE W
CARIBBEAN TODAY AND MON THEN ENTER THE GULF MON NIGHT INTO TUE.
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATE TUE.

...HISPANIOLA...
REMNANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED
ACROSS THE ISLAND ON SATURDAY CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS MAINLY OVER HAITI AND WESTERN
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE REMAINDER ISLAND. THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY. DUE TO THE RAINS OF THE PAST 24 HOURS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...ONAMET HAS
ISSUED FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS FOR RIVERS...STREAMS...AND CREEKS
FOR PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. PLEASE SEE ONAMET
WEBSITE AT WWW.ONMET.GOV.DO FOR MORE DETAILS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FAR EASTERN GULF
ACROSS FLORIDA TO THE SW N ATLC AND SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH
FROM CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THIS AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 27N BETWEEN 66W-
75W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 28N43W. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE MID-WEEK.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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