[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220601
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 13N27W
TO 5N29W MOVING W NEAR 20-25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. BOTH
STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR AND DRY
AIR FROM A SAHARAN AIR LAYER OUTBREAK HINDER DEEP CONVECTION AT
THE TIME. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
18N78W TO 9N77W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE
IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS IN A DIFFLUENCE ZONE IN THE UPPER LEVELS
WHICH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF
13N BETWEEN 74W-84W AND S OF 13N W OF 80W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 14N17W TO 10N21W TO E OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 8N27W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 7N31W THEN CONTINUES ALONG
5N43W TO 3N51W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
AND TSTMS IS FROM 7N-10N E OF 15W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 34W-44W AND FROM 3N-5N W OF 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF
WATERS...THUS SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1015 MB
HIGH NEAR 27N91W. THIS HIGH IS PROVIDING E-SE WIND FLOW OF 5-15
KT ACROSS THE BASIN W OF 87W. FURTHER EAST...A MID-UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE FAR EASTERN GULF TO A PORTION OF THE
SW N ATLC CONTINUE TO ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS
THE NE AND CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR
SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT MAINTAIN THE GULF WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
FAIR WEATHER. SURFACE RIDGING IS GOING TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
BASIN DURING THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS MAINTAINING MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER. HOWEVER...A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE CARIBBEAN
IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE BASIN BY TUE MORNING ENHANCING SHOWERS
STARTING MON NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH COVERING FROM THE FAR E GULF OF MEXICO TO THE
SW N ATLC EXTENDS S OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE SEA CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 81W IS BEING SUPPORTED BY THIS
TROUGH ALOFT WHILE DIFFLUECE ALOFT ENHANCES THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
AND ENHANCES SHOWERS IN THIS REGION AS WELL AS HAITI AND EASTERN
CUBA. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE N ATLC EXTENDS A RIDGE INTO THE
NE BASIN THUS INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE WINDS
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. WINDS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
REGION RANGE FROM 20-25 KT WHILE A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT
SUPPORT WINDS OF 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE. REMNANT DRY AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH A SAHARAN AIR LAYER OUTBREAK IS SUPPORTING HAZE AND DUSTY
SKIES OVER THE E-SE BASIN. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE
W CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND SUN. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATE TUE.

...HISPANIOLA...
REMNANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED
ACROSS THE ISLAND ON SATURDAY CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS MAINLY OVER HAITI AND NE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC ADJACENT WATERS. CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER ISLAND. THESE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT TAPERING OFF ON SUN.
DUE TO THE RAINS OF THE PAST 24 HOURS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...ONAMET HAS ISSUED FLASH
FLOOD WARNINGS FOR RIVERS...STREAMS...AND CREEKS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. PLEASE SEE ONAMET WEBSITE AT
WWW.ONMET.GOV.DO FOR MORE DETAILS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FAR EASTERN GULF
ACROSS FLORIDA TO THE SW N ATLC AND CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A 1013
MB LOW ANALYZED NEAR 30N76W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE E OF
THE LOW CENTER FROM 29N-31N BETWEEN 75W-76W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS ADJACENT WATERS NEAR 23N70W TO
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 19N73W ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS S
OF 25N BETWEEN 68W-78W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED
BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 28N37W. THE
1013 MB LOW OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST WILL MOVE N OF THE AREA AND
DISSIPATE EARLY SUN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION
THROUGH THE MID-WEEK.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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