[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 231803
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 07N47W TO 16N43W MOVING W AT 20-25
KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ABOUT
THE WAVE AXIS IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD THAT COINCIDES WITH
GLOBAL MODEL INDICATED 700 MB TROUGHING AND 850 MB RELATIVE
VORTICITY FIELDS. THE WAVE HAS BECOME MORE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
ITCZ OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND IS FORECAST TO REACH THE EASTERN
TROPICAL ATLC OFFSHORE ZONES BY EARLY TUESDAY IMPACTING THE
LESSER ANTILLES AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-11N
BETWEEN 43W-48W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N90W TO 20N88W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE FINDS ITSELF BENEATH AN OVERALL STABLE ENVIRONMENT
DUE TO NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CENTERED OVER WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR
19N105W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED ACROSS INLAND SOUTHERN
MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WAVE AT THIS
TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 15N17W TO
1013 MB LOW PRES NEAR 11N21W TO 06N24W. THE INTERTROPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N24W TO 05N32W TO 09N46W TO
06N55W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-07N BETWEEN 23W-
34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW INFLUENCES THE GULF
BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM OVER THE NW BAHAMAS
SW TO A NARROW BASE OVER HONDURAS NEAR 15N86W AND A BROAD MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
MEXICO NEAR 19N105W WITH AXIS EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
SE CONUS. OVERALL WITH THE RIDGING IN PLACE TO THE WEST...IT
CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO AND MUCH OF THE
GULF. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE SW NORTH
ATLC ALONG 25N WITH GENERALLY E-SE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO
20 KT. WITH MOIST RETURN FLOW OCCURRING...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IS GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 22N W OF
89W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO OCCURRING N OF 29N
BETWEEN 82W-89W...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI. THE SURFACE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GULF WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE FLORIDA
STRAITS SW TO OVER HONDURAS THAT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN 67W-84W. THIS OVERALL DIFFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT ORIGINATES OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND IS SUSTAINING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N W
OF 75W. THE PRESENCE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ALONG 09N/10N IS
ALSO LIKELY AIDING IN THE PERSISTENT CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...
ONLY A FEW POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED TO THE EAST OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS FROM 17N-23N BETWEEN 72W-84W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH FAIR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK AS A
SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE SW NORTH
ATLC.

...HISPANIOLA...
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A MODEST AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE AND SCATTERED CLOUDINESS ADVECTING NORTHEASTWARD ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST ALONG
81W. WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY...THE CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS INCREASES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. ANY ACTIVITY THAT FORMS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH
GRADUALLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY TO THE NORTH ATLC THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD WITH THE
TROUGHING DIPPING SOUTHWARD TO A BASE NEAR 33N72W. WITH MOST OF
THE ENERGY TO THE NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM 33N70W W-SW TO 32N77W WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
ANALYZED FROM 32N74W SW TO 29N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ARE OCCURRING FROM 31N-34N BETWEEN 75W-80W IN THE VICINITY OF
THE COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC
WATERS IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 25N. WITH OVERALL DIFFLUENT MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS IN PLACE HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 59W-67W EAST OF A WEAK BREAK IN
THE RIDGE AXIS. LASTLY...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 32N39W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN

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