[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT JUN 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E TROPICAL ATLC EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON
TROUGH. ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WAVES DIAGNOSTIC
TOOLS THE WAVE AXIS IS LOCATED ALONG 23W AND A LOW-LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ACCOMPANIES IT. ACCORDING TO THE CURRENT
POSITION THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE ALONG WITH MID-UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 5N-11N
BETWEEN 19W-26W.

A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS FARTHER WEST WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
10N29W TO 4N30W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. SAHARAN DRY AIR IS
ENGULFING THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT LIMITING THE CONVECTION
TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 29W-32W.

A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 19N69W TO 9N71W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. STRONG DEEP LAYER
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IS LIMITING THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTHERN
WAVE ENVIRONMENT. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS IS
FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 62W-70W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS S MEXICO WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
18N94W THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO 12N95W. FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION ABOUT THIS WAVE PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION FOR THE E PACIFIC REGION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 10N17W. IT THEN RESUMES W OF THE FIRST TROPICAL WAVE NEAR
8N20W TO 6N29W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF THE SECOND TROPICAL WAVE
NEAR 4N32W AND EXTENDS ALONG 2N44W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N50W.
BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVES...THERE IS NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF
WATERS...THUS SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB
HIGH NEAR 28N88W. THIS HIGH IS PROVIDING E-SE WIND FLOW OF 5-15
KT ACROSS THE BASIN. FURTHER EAST...A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN GULF TO THE SW N ATLC SUPPORTS A
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS NW FLORIDA THAT IS ENHANCING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PENINSULA. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY
AIR SUBSIDENCE ARE KEEPING THE GULF WITH CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR
WEATHER. SURFACE RIDGING IS GOING TO PERSIST ACROSS THE BASIN
DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH COVERING FROM THE E GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SW N
ATLC EXTENDS S OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE
SEA IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE. THIS TROUGHINESS ALOFT
IS GENERATING DIFFLUENT FLOW TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 12N BETWEEN 73W-80W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS
MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM EASTERN
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO NW VENEZUELA. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION
FOR FURTHER DETAILS. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS
ARE N OF PUERTO RICO AND DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE. THIS ACTIVITY IS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THESE TERRITORIES. A LOW PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN COLOMBIA IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
TSTMS S OF 11N BETWEEN 73W-78W. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE W-NW
TOWARDS WESTERN CUBA AND HONDURAS DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...
A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E TIP OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT THROUGH SAT. THIS WAVE COUPLED
WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SHOWER/
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY TAPERING OFF ON SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN GULF ACROSS
FLORIDA TO THE SW N ATLC WHERE IT SUPPORTS A 1015 MB LOW NEAR
29N79W. THE RIDGE COVERING GREAT PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN
EXTENDS NORTHWARD INTO THE SW N ATLC AND GENERATES DIFFLUENT
FLOW TO ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AS WELL AS ADJACENT WATERS. THE TROPICAL WAVE
OVER THE E PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC IS GENERATING
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 62W-70W.
A SECOND UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 54W
GENERATING SHOWERS FROM 20N-28N BETWEEN 52W-61W. THE REMAINDER
OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE WITH A PAIR OF 1024
MB HIGHS NEAR 27N46W AND 28N32W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS
BETWEEN THESE HIGHS EXTENDING FROM 30N35W TO 26N38W. THIS
SURFACE TROUGH IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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