[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211032
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT JUN 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 13N24W
TO 2N23W MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT A
BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ACCOMPANYING THIS WAVE.
ALTHOUGH REDUCED OVERNIGHT...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ALONG WITH MID-
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 2N-13N BETWEEN 20W-29W.

A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS FARTHER WEST WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
10N31W TO 2N30W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. SAHARAN DRY AIR IS
ENGULFING THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT LIMITING THE CONVECTION
TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 30W-33W.

A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 20N71W TO 9N71W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. STRONG DEEP
LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IS HINDERING THE CONVECTION OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. HOWEVER...DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPORTING
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS NE OF THE WAVE
AXIS FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 63W-70W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS S MEXICO WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
19N94W THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO 13N95W. FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION ABOUT THIS WAVE PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION FOR THE E PACIFIC REGION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 12N16W TO 11N18W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF THE SECOND TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 6N34W AND EXTENDS ALONG 5N44W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
4N52W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVES...THERE
IS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF
WATERS...THUS SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB
HIGH NEAR 27N87W. THIS HIGH IS PROVIDING E-SE WIND FLOW OF 5-15
KT ACROSS THE BASIN W OF 88W. FURTHER EAST...A MID-UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN GULF TO THE SW N ATLC ENHANCES
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA. SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT ARE
KEEPING THE GULF WITH CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER. SURFACE
RIDGING IS GOING TO PERSIST ACROSS THE BASIN DURING THE NEXT TWO
TO THREE DAYS MAINTAINING FAIR WEATHER.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH COVERING FROM THE E GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SW N
ATLC EXTENDS S OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE
SEA IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE. THIS TROUGHINESS ALOFT
IS GENERATING DIFFLUENT FLOW TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 13N BETWEEN 72W-82W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS
MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM WESTERN
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO NW VENEZUELA. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES
SECTION FOR FURTHER DETAILS. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION AND
TSTMS ARE NE OF HISPANIOLA AND N OF PUERTO RICO BEING SUPPORTED
BY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. A LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA IS
SUPPORTING A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS S OF 11N
BETWEEN 75W-79W. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE W-NW DURING THE
NEXT TWO DAYS GENERATING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS FOR
HISPANIOLA AND NW CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...
A TROPICAL WAVE OVER CENTRAL HISPANIOLA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE ISLAND TODAY. THIS WAVE COUPLED WITH AN INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN GULF ACROSS
FLORIDA TO THE SW N ATLC WHERE IT SUPPORTS REMNANTS SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH A FORMER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THESE
SHOWERS ARE LOCATED FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 77W-80W. THE RIDGE
COVERING GREAT PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS NORTHWARD INTO
THE SW N ATLC AND GENERATES DIFFLUENT FLOW TO ENHANCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AS WELL AS
ADJACENT WATERS. ANOTHER AREA OF DIFFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT IS
SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS N OF PUERTO
RICO AND NE OF HISPANIOLA. THIS CONVECTION IS ALSO ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. A SECOND UPPER
TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 58W SUPPORTING SHOWERS
AND TSTMS FROM 26N-28N BETWEEN 57W-58W. THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE WITH A PAIR OF 1022 MB
HIGHS...ONE NEAR 27N43W AND OTHER NEAR 28N32W. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR

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