[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 202354
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI JUN 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N17W TO 6N17W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SPIKE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N28W TO 5N29W MOVING W 10-15 KT.
WAVE IS CO-LOCATED WITH A MID LEVEL LOW NEAR 6N29W. ALTHOUGH THE
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED
DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS F19N68W
ACROSS THE E TIP OF HISPANIOLA ALONG 15N70W TO INLAND OVER
VENEZUELA NEAR 11N70W MOVING 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN
AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
MOVING SE TO NW E OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS S MEXICO EXTENDS FROM 19N94W
THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH ANY CONVECTION INLAND OVER
MEXICO. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ABOUT THIS WAVE PLEASE SEE THE
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE E PACIFIC REGION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 10N14W TO 9N16W THEN RESUMES E OF THE FIRST TROPICAL WAVE
NEAR 8N19W TO 6N27W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF THE SECOND TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 6N31W AND EXTENDS ALONG 2N40W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
1N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 18W-25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH OVER SW LOUISIANA IS
PROVIDING A MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS THIS EVENING. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
SHOW THE PRESENCE OF SAHARAN DUST OVER THE GULF CREATING HAZY
CONDITIONS S OF LINE FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO CORPUS CHRISTI
TEXAS. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W GULF COUPLED WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE E GULF IS SPREADING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOPED INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST INTO THE GULF WATERS N OF
29N E OF 90W. A SEABREEZE INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS GENERATING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE ADJACENT
WATERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS S OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM NE VENEZUELA TO ACROSS
HISPANIOLA INTO THE W ATLC. ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN E OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND COUPLED WITH THE
DIFFLUENT FLOW IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 220 NM OF LINE FROM PANAMA/COSTA RICA TO
ACROSS EASTERN CUBA INCLUDING JAMAICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND
WESTERN HISPANIOLA. ACTIVITY OVER EASTERN HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO
RICO IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE WITH FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS CONTINUING ACROSS
THE GULF HONDURAS MAINLY AT NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...
A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E TIP OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT THROUGH SAT. THIS WAVE COUPLED
WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SHOWER/
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY TAPERING OFF ON SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM BERMUDA W-SW ALONG 29N79W CROSSING
FLORIDA INTO THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NW CARIBBEAN. A SMALL
SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS IS THE ONLY INDICATION LEFT OF A WEAK 1016
MB LOW THAT IS ANALYZED NEAR 29N79W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THE LOW TO THE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR PALM BEACH. A
SEABREEZE INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS INLAND ALONG THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA TO OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS IS GENERATING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FLORIDA AND INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS TO THE ABOVE SURFACE TROUGH. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO NEAR 30N68W COVERING THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENT
FLOW TO GENERATE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER CUBA AND W
HISPANIOLA AND THUS ARE BEING DRAWN INTO THE W ATLC BETWEEN CUBA
AND THE BAHAMA ISLANDS W OF 70W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC IS
GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N-22N
BETWEEN 61W-68W. A SECOND UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
ALONG 56W GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N-
25N BETWEEN 53W-61W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 30N53W TO 27N61W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE WITH A
PAIR OF 1024 MB HIGHS NEAR 28N31W AND 28N44W. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH IS BETWEEN THESE HIGHS EXTENDING FROM 30N37W TO 26N40W.
THIS SURFACE TROUGH IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
THE 1016 MB LOW OFF THE FLORIDA COAST IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
BY SAT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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