[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 191057
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUN 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N55W 12N57W 8N59W...
MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS OR SO.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 12N TO 16N
BETWEEN 55W AND 60W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG
86W/87W FROM 17N SOUTHWARD...ACROSS HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA...
MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION... NUMEROUS STRONG IS MOVING AWAY FROM EL
SALVADOR...SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THE MONSOON
TROUGH IS ALONG 9N/10N BETWEEN 74W AND 84W...INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FOR
THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 76W IN COLOMBIA AND
84W IN COSTA RICA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 16N
SOUTHWARD FROM 76W WESTWARD.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 9N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N20W TO
4N34W 4N40W AND 3N45W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 8N BETWEEN 50W AND
56W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN AFRICA
AND 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A
32N78W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS OFF THE COAST OF
SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA...TO A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N84W...ACROSS WESTERN
CUBA AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INTO
HONDURAS NEAR 15N87W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 92W EASTWARD...THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 70W WESTWARD...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 75W
WESTWARD. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD
ENDING AT 19/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC...WAS 0.13 IN TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL
TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 18/1200 UTC...ACCORDING
TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...
MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 1.04 IN NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS...0.13
IN TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS...0.17 IN GUADELOUPE...0.07 IN
FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS...0.03 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR THE BAHAMAS FROM 26N TO 29N BETWEEN
76W AND 80W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N NORTHWARD
FROM 70W WESTWARD. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...EXCEPT FOR THAT
PART THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE LINE 21N80W 18N84W 19N87W IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 100W...FROM CENTRAL
TEXAS SOUTHWARD INTO MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ACROSS BERMUDA...TO THE NORTHEASTERN
COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 30N81W...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
23N94W...INTO INTERIOR MEXICO NEAR 20N100W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE ICAO
STATION KATP.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AT HARLINGEN IN THE DEEP
SOUTH OF TEXAS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING
OBSERVED IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS. LOW CLOUD
CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN VICTORIA AND PALACIOS...AND IN
TOMBALL TEXAS...JUST TO THE NORTH OF HOUSTON. VISIBILITIES OF 2
MILES OR LESS AND FOG ARE BEING OBSERVED IN PASCAGOULA
MISSISSIPPI...IN MILTON FLORIDA IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...IN
PUNTA GORDA TO THE SOUTH OF THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA..

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND HISPANIOLA...

A LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A
32N78W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS OFF THE COAST OF
SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA...TO A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N84W...ACROSS WESTERN
CUBA AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INTO
HONDURAS NEAR 15N87W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 92W EASTWARD...THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 70W WESTWARD...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 75W
WESTWARD. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD
ENDING AT 19/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC...WAS 0.13 IN TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL
TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 18/1200 UTC...ACCORDING
TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...
MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 1.04 IN NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS...0.13
IN TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS...0.17 IN GUADELOUPE...0.07 IN
FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS...0.03 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR THE BAHAMAS FROM 26N TO 29N BETWEEN
76W AND 80W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N NORTHWARD
FROM 70W WESTWARD. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...EXCEPT FOR THAT
PART THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE LINE 21N80W 18N84W 19N87W IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO AND
IN PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVER PUERTO
PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST
WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...AS A TROUGH COVERS THE AREA
THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
INTO HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA...AND A RIDGE RESTS ON TOP OF
HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-
HISPANIOLA RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W/87W FROM 17N
SOUTHWARD...ACROSS HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA...MOVING WESTWARD 10
KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG IS MOVING AWAY FROM EL SALVADOR...SOUTHWARD INTO
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N/10N
BETWEEN 74W AND 84W...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FOR THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 7N
TO 11N BETWEEN 76W IN COLOMBIA AND 84W IN COSTA RICA.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 16N SOUTHWARD FROM 76W
WESTWARD.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN
AREAS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN SURFACE TRADE
WIND FLOW.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS...EXCEPT TO 30
KNOTS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND WITHIN 90 NM OF
THE COAST OF NICARAGUA...AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET...FROM 11N
TO 14N BETWEEN 70W AND 78W AND ELSEWHERE FROM 13N TO 15N TO THE
WEST OF 75W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS
TO 9 FEET FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN
73W AND 82W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF...THE 6-HOUR
FORECAST OF EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET
TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE WEST OF 86W...INCLUDING IN THE GULF
OF HONDURAS.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N45W TO
27N48W AND TO A 26N64W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 20N66W.
THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT STARTS NEAR 32N51W
TO 30N60W TO 29N64W. THE FRONT BECOMES DISSIPATING STATIONARY
FROM 29N64W TO 26N70W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N37W TO 28N40W 25N60W 24N70W.

IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE REMNANT OF A SURFACE TROUGH STILL IS
FOUND IN THE BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS THAT ARE FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. THE
SCATTEROMETER WIND DATA HINT AT THE TROUGH STILL AS POSSIBLY
BEING EVIDENT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS THAT COVER THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 29W AND 40W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ACROSS BERMUDA...TO THE NORTHEASTERN
COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 30N81W...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
23N94W...INTO INTERIOR MEXICO NEAR 20N100W.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 30N...FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO A
1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N34W...TO 29N51W AND
24N60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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