[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191754
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ADDED TO THE 1200 UTC ANALYSIS/SURFACE MAP
ALONG 28W/29W FROM 5N-11N BASED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
ANIMATION AND THE HOVMOLLER DIAGRAM. THIS WAVE MOVED OUT OF
AFRICA A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO. IN ADDITION...THE CIMSS VORTICITY
PRODUCT PROVIDES SOME SUPPORT FOR THE WAVE POSITION INDICATED.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED MAINLY WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE WAVE
AXIS FROM 7N-9N. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AT 15-
20 KT.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. IT EXTENDS FROM 19N58W TO 11N59W MOVING W
AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS REFLECTED IN A SURGE OF MOISTURE ON THE
TPW ANIMATION AND COINCIDES WITH A WEAK 700 MB TROUGH AXIS.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...REACHING THE
UK/US VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT...PUERTO RICO EARLY ON FRI...AND
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. A MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW WILL FOLLOW THE WAVE PASSAGE KEEPING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND TSTMS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA WITH AXIS ALONG
88W S OF 18N. THE WAVE AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE EPAC WHERE IS
PRODUCING A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION. ONLY FEW SHOWERS ARE
NOTED NEAR THE WAVE AXIS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND SE MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLC THROUGH THE COAST OF GUINEA
NEAR 8N13W THEN CONTINUES TO 07N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N20W TO 06N27W THEN RESUMES
W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 28W/29W FROM 5N30W TO 3N40W TO THE
COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 3N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 13W-22W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 22W-26W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH OVER THE SE
CONUS CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION PRODUCING MAINLY LIGHT
WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE EASTERN GULF. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
WINDS ARE NOTED ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE DUE TO THE
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N85W TO 26N87W. MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE RIDGE WITH ONLY A SMALL AREA OF MODERATE CONVECTION ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ALOFT...UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY
FLOW IS ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF REGION BETWEEN A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER FLORIDA AND WESTERN CUBA AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG THE COASTS OF MEXICO AND TEXAS. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOST OF THIS NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE...PARTICULARLY BETWEEN 87W AND
94W. SURFACE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO ANCHOR ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A
HIGH PRESSURE CELL DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL GULF ALONG 27N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM WESTERN CUBA TO THE GULF OF
HONDURAS INTO NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. A RIDGE DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS COVERING THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS WITHIN ABOUT 210 NM SE OF A LINE
FROM 22N78W TO 16N85W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS AFFECTING THE LESSER
ANTILLES. PLEASE SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION FOR DETAILS.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER
PARTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS
ALSO HELPING TO INDUCE THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. PRES GRADIENT
BETWEEN A RIDGE N OF AREA AND THE COLOMBIAN/PANAMANIAN LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE 1406 ASCAT CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF
THESE WINDS.

...HISPANIOLA...
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH A MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW...LOCAL EFFECTS AND DIURNAL HEATING. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE LESSER ANTILLES IS FORECAST TO BRING AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY BY SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FOCUSED OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA SUPPORTING AN AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS N
OF 27N. A SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED ON THE 1200 UTC MAP IN
THIS AREA AND STRETCHES FROM 30N79W TO NEAR MELBOURNE FLORIDA.
TO THE EAST...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N60W.
THIS SYSTEM SUPPORTS A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS
FROM 31N57W SW TO 26N66W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EAST ATLC WITH A PAIR OF 1025 MB
HIGH PRES CENTERS LOCATED NEAR 30N34W AND NEAR 28N42W. THESE
FEATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE SEEN ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE. THE TROPICS REMAINS QUIET AND TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
GR

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