[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 190604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU JUN 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N55W 12N57W 8N58W...TO
6N53W...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS
OR SO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 12N TO
14N BETWEEN 53W AND 55W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 57W AND 59W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W/86W FROM 17N
SOUTHWARD...ACROSS HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA...MOVING WESTWARD 10
KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA...FROM SOUTHERN HONDURAS TO THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N87W BEYOND
9N93...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
ACCOMPANIES THE TROPICAL WAVE.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 10N14W TO 8N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N16W TO 6N20W
6N30W 4N40W AND 4N44W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN AFRICA AND
28W. NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 46W AND 55W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A
32N78W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS OFF THE COAST OF
SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA...TO A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N84W...ACROSS WESTERN
CUBA AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INTO
HONDURAS NEAR 15N87W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR
THE PERIOD ENDING AT 19/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC...WAS 0.13 IN TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS. MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM
92W EASTWARD...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 70W WESTWARD...AND THE
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 75W WESTWARD. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN
INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 18/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE
PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/
SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 1.04 IN NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS...0.13 IN
TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS. 0.17 IN GUADELOUPE...0.07 IN FREEPORT
IN THE BAHAMAS...0.03 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO 28N BETWEEN 77W
AND 81W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 70W WESTWARD.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 100W...FROM CENTRAL
TEXAS SOUTHWARD INTO MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ACROSS BERMUDA...TO THE NORTHEASTERN
COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 30N81W...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
28N94W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
ICAO STATIONS...KGVX...KCRH...KGBK...KATP...AND KXPY.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS...AWAY FROM THE COAST. SCATTERED TO
BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE REST OF THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL
PLAINS.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND HISPANIOLA...

A LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A
32N78W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS OFF THE COAST OF
SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA...TO A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N84W...ACROSS WESTERN
CUBA AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INTO
HONDURAS NEAR 15N87W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR
THE PERIOD ENDING AT 19/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC...WAS 0.13 IN TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS. MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM
92W EASTWARD...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 70W WESTWARD...AND THE
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 75W WESTWARD. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN
INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 18/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE
PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/
SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 1.04 IN NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS...0.13 IN
TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS. 0.17 IN GUADELOUPE...0.07 IN FREEPORT
IN THE BAHAMAS...0.03 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO 28N BETWEEN 77W
AND 81W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 70W WESTWARD.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVER BARAHONA. FEW
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LA ROMANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA...AND IN SANTIAGO.
FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE BEING
OBSERVED IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST
WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...AS A TROUGH COVERS THE AREA
THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
INTO HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA...AND A RIDGE RESTS ON TOP OF
HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-
HISPANIOLA RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N87W BEYOND 9N93...INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA...FROM SOUTHERN HONDURAS TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC
OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG IS IN PANAMA FROM 80W WESTWARD. SCATTERED
STRONG IS ALONG THE PANAMA COAST BETWEEN 79W AND 80W...AND
WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 11N81W.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN
AREAS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN SURFACE TRADE
WIND FLOW.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS...EXCEPT 25 TO 30
KT WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO
11 FEET...FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 72W AND 82W. A SECOND AREA OF
CONCERN CONSISTS OF...THE 6-HOUR FORECAST OF EAST WINDS 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO
THE WEST OF 87W...INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THROUGH 32N46W TO 29N50W
AND TO A 26N64W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 20N66W...PASSES
THROUGH 32N54W TO A 28N63W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO
23N70W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N55W TO 29N62W TO 26N67W AND 26N70W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE NORTH OF 24N67W 25N60W
28N46W 30N40W AND 32N37W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N33W 26N34W 24N34W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE BROKEN
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS THAT COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO
30N BETWEEN 29W AND 40W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ACROSS BERMUDA...TO THE NORTHEASTERN
COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 30N81W...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
28N94W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 32N34W...TO A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 28N43W...TO 26N52W AND 19N63W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

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