[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190000
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 07N57W TO 14N54W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES A MAXIMUM IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 05N-16N BETWEEN 50W-58W THAT
COINCIDES WITH GLOBAL MODEL 850 MB RELATIVELY VORTICITY GUIDANCE
AND A WEAK 700 MB TROUGH AXIS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 50W-58W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 16N84W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS SOUTH OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. IN
ADDITION...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES THE WAVE
CONTINUES THROUGH AN AREA OF MAXIMUM LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY AIDING
IN SUSTAINING SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 80W-84W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
10N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
10N18W TO 05N26W TO 03N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 22W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS W OF 84W OVER THE GULF THIS
EVENING BETWEEN A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FLORIDA
STRAITS AND WESTERN CUBA AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS
ALONG 97W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOST OF THIS NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AND FURTHER
SUPPORTS A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE W-SW TO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST NEAR
CORPUS CHRISTI. HOWEVER...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INFLUENCES
PORTIONS OF CUBA AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING E OF 83W THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED TO THE WEST OF THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY FROM 27N84W TO 24N86W WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
OTHERWISE...ASIDE FROM A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG
THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS...THE SURFACE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS WITH
ANTICYCLONIC WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT W OF 90W AND 5 TO
15 KT E OF 90W. SURFACE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO ANCHOR ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ALONG 87W TO A BASE OVER
HONDURAS. MOSTLY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED W OF 86W...
HOWEVER A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 85W ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF
EASTERN HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...AND NORTHERN COSTA RICA AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
FROM 11N-19N BETWEEN 77W-85W. FARTHER NORTHWEST...UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE ALONG WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY
CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS CUBA AND
PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE...
TRADES PERSIST GENERALLY IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS NOTED FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 68W-83W. AS THE
TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA MOVES WEST OF THE BASIN
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE...CURRENTLY
ALONG 56W SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT
THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH PRECIPITATION BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE ISLAND
THIS EVENING HOWEVER WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE ISLAND STILL FINDS ITSELF UNDER
A SLIGHTLY DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LIES TO THE WEST OVER THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS AND
CENTRAL AMERICA. THESE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL ONCE AGAIN
PROVE AMPLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FOCUSED OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING ACROSS CUBA AND ALONG THE
NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA...AND FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 75W-83W. TO
THE EAST...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED 26N64W THAT
SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N56W SW TO 26N68W
THEN W TO 26N73W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM
27N62W TO 24N66W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM
25N-29N BETWEEN 60W-66W. OTHERWISE...ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE PROVIDES INFLUENCE E OF 55W
ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N34W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net