[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161716
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1615 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 3N41W TO 12N33W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES A DISTINCT
MAXIMUM NEAR THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE IS APPARENT AT THE SURFACE
AS WELL WITH A PRONOUNCED SE TO NE WIND SHIFT INDICATED BY A
RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS WHICH SHOWED THE WAVE TILTED
FROM NE TO SW. THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY SPEED UP IN MOVEMENT WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ACCELERATION BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE N. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60-
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED FROM THE E CARIBBEAN TO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN SHORE OF LAKE MARACAIBO
NEAR 9N71W TO THE S COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 18N71W
MOVING W AT 15 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE WAVE IS NO LONGER TILTED FROM NW TO SE AND IS
NOW MORE UPRIGHT. A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT AT THE SURFACE IS ALSO
NOTED BY BUOY AND NEARBY LAND BASED OBSERVATIONS. NO SIGNIFICANT
DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING OVER WATER...HOWEVER AS
IS TYPICAL WITH AN APPROACHING WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER LAKE MARACAIBO.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE FAR
SW CARIBBEAN SEA JUST E OF COSTA RICA NEAR 10N83W TO GRAND
CAYMAN NEAR 19N82W MOVING W AT A SLOW 5-10 KT. THE WAVE IS
EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER SATELLITE IMAGERY HOWEVER
THE WAVE IS DIFFICULT TO TRACK AT THE SURFACE AS NO NOTABLE
TURNING OF THE WINDS ARE NOTED. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING S OF 13N E OF THE WAVE AXIS TO 79W/80W
ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION MAY BE MORE DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
THE WAVE ALONG WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN. CONTINUED SHOWERS AND SOME DEEP CONVECTION ARE LIKELY
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM HONDURAS SOUTHWARD DUE TO
THE COMBINED FORCING OF THE WAVE AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.

...ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SENEGAL COAST NEAR 13N16W
TO 5N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
5N19W TO 5N35W THEN RESUMES FROM 5N41W TO THE BRAZIL COAST NEAR
1N50W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH OR THE ITCZ IN THE ATLANTIC
OUTSIDE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE. THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS PANAMA FROM NEAR 9N78W
TO 1008 MB LOW PRES W OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 10.5N76W. NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN DIRECT ASSOCIATION
WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TO THE NE
GULF NEAR 27N85W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM E OF FLORIDA IN THE GULF EXTENDING TO THE S-SW ACROSS THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA HELPING TO GENERATE CONVECTION. A PRONOUNCED
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS TO THE W EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR
20N100W TO THE N-NE ACROSS THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY. MAINLY DRY
AND STABLE AIR WITH SUBSIDENCE IS PRESENT W OF THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING CONTROLS CONDITIONS IN THE GULF
EXTENDING FROM ATLC HIGH PRES. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND 1-3
FT SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NE GULF WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH SE WINDS AND 3-5 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MAINLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW IS NOTED OVER MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN E OF 80W AROUND BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING
NORTHWARD FROM NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. THE TAIL END OF AN UPPER
TROUGH DIPS INTO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA AND WESTERN CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS SW WINDS ALOFT
OUT AHEAD OF IT HELPING TO PUMP UP DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM
THE NE PACIFIC. DRY AND STABLE AIR IS FEEDING IN BEHIND THE
TROUGH ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CARIB N OF 18N W OF 84W.
A LESS PRONOUNCED MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN HELPING TO GENERATE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
TSTMS E OF A TROUGH WAVE AXIS DISCUSSED ABOVE. THERE ARE SOME
HINTS THAT A SURFACE TROUGH MAY FORM SOON WITH WEAK LOW PRES
DEVELOPING ALONG IT IF CURRENT CONDITIONS HOLD. FRESH TO STRONG
EASTERLY TRADES...UP TO 30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING
THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS ALONG WITH 8-11 FT SEAS WILL
PERSIST IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH  MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES
AND 4-7 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT PULSING TO FRESH TO STRONG IN
THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED TOWARD THE ISLAND FROM THE W
AROUND A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS COMBINED WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE TO THE SW...AND ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE MOVING BY S OF THE
ISLAND WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING W OF THE ISLAND OVER THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE AND BETWEEN CUBA AND JAMAICA AND SOME OF THIS CONVECTION
MAY ALSO BE ADVECTED TO THE E OVER HAITI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR NW PORTION FROM NEAR 31N79W TO
FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH AS NOTED BY A WEAK WIND SHIFT AT
BUOYS AND NEARBY LAND STATIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 27N W OF 77W DUE TO BOTH THE SURFACE
TROUGH AND A SUPPORTING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH IS FORMING
A CUTOFF UPPER LOW NEAR 30N77W. A WEAK COLD FRONT AND PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH ARE N OF 28N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF THESE
BOUNDARIES. A WIND SHIFT WAS NOTED BY A RECENT ASCAT PASS.
OTHERWISE LITTLE IMPACT FROM THE FRONT/TROUGH IS EXPECTED AS
THEY CONTINUE TO THE E ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC. ANOTHER SURFACE
TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT...IS NEARLY STATIONARY
EXTENDING FROM NEAR 31N32W TO 26N48W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60-75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THIS
TROUGH IS BECOMING LESS DEFINED AND MAY DISSIPATE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

OTHERWISE SURFACE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE MAJORITY OF THE ATLC
THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS AND 1-3 FT SEAS N OF 27N W OF 70W AND ALSO INSIDE
THE BAHAMAS...WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E-SE WINDS AND 3-5
FT SEAS ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LEWITSKY


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