[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161051
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N34W TO 2N38W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 33W-36W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 19N70W TO
VENEZUELA NEAR 9N68W MOVING W 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 19N82W TO
10N83W MOVING W 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION S OF 12N E OF 80W.

...ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N17W
TO 8N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
8N18W TO 7N32W THEN RESUMES FROM 4N39W TO 1N50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 38N-44W

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS PRESENT IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
WITH A WEAK PRES GRADIENT SURFACE WINDS ARE LIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM SW LOUISIANA TO NE MEXICO.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ZONAL UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN E OF 78W
AROUND BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. THE TAIL END OF AN UPPER TROUGH DIPS
INTO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WITH SW
WINDS OUT AHEAD OF IT HELPING TO ADVECT DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
FROM THE NE PACIFIC. DRY AND STABLE AIR IS ACROSS THE FAR NW
CARIBBEAN. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADES...UP TO 30 KT NEAR
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS
WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES...EXCEPT PULSING TO FRESH TO
STRONG IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS EACH NIGHT/EARLY MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...
MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED TOWARD THE ISLAND FROM THE W AROUND A
MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS COMBINED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE WHICH
WILL MOVE BY JUST TO THE S OF THE ISLAND TODAY WILL SUPPORT A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS THE FAR W PORTION OF THE AREA
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 32N68W TO EASTERN CUBA.
SURFACE TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT...IS NEARLY
STATIONARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR 31N32W TO 25N45W. A FEW SHOWERS
ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE TROUGH. OTHERWISE A SURFACE RIDGE IS E
OF THE TROUGH. MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS ARE ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE
AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
DGS


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