[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 162353
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 02N42W TO 09N39W TO 13N33W MOVING W
AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A 700 MB TROUGH ALOFT WITH
BROADER 700 MB TROUGHING TO THE NORTH AND WEST. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES MAXIMUM VALUES IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 05N-12N BETWEEN 32W-43W. EARLIER
MORNING ASCAT DATA SHOWED THE WIND FIELD SURROUNDING THE WAVE AT
THE SURFACE WITH A PRONOUNCED SE TO NE WIND SHIFT...STRONGEST
WINDS NORTH OF THE WAVE AXIS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N72W TO 17N71W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND
WITH MOST ENERGY ALOFT REMAINING S OF 15N. A RELATIVELY FAIR
AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL ENERGY IS NOTED BETWEEN THIS WAVE AND
ANOTHER WAVE TO THE WEST ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA GENERATING AN
OVERALL BROAD CYCLONIC ENVIRONMENT FOR THE WAVES TO MOVE
THROUGH. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE WAVE AT
THIS TIME...HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED MODERATE ARE OCCURRING ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA THIS EVENING.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N84W TO 18N83W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT.
THE WAVE REMAINS DIFFICULT TO TRACK AT THE SURFACE AS NO NOTABLE
TURNING OF THE WINDS ARE NOTED. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-16N BETWEEN 82W-85W...INCLUDING INLAND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA THIS EVENING.

...ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO
05N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
05N19W TO 04N25W TO 06N40W TO 01N50W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED MID-OCEAN...ONLY
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-05N BETWEEN 28W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES OVER THE GULF BASIN THIS
EVENING BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC AND
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 97W. THE OVERALL STABLE
ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF
ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE NEAR 30N86W. THE RIDGE IS GENERATING MOSTLY FAIR SKIES
AND FAIR CONDITIONS WITH PRIMARILY E-SE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10
TO 20 KT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD AS THE RIDGE REMAINS STATIONARY INTO TUESDAY. THE ONLY
CONVECTION NOTED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY IS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND WITHIN THE WESTERN COASTAL WATERS E OF
84W. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE THROUGH THE
WEEK AHEAD.


CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE PROMOTING FAIR
WEATHER AT THE SURFACE N OF 17N W OF 80W. TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES
GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE NOTED THIS EVENING. NEAR
THE MAXIMUM LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGHING...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS EASTERN CUBA...THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND HISPANIOLA THIS EVENING TAILING SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE SW CARIBBEAN WATERS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS OCCURRING S OF 16N BETWEEN 75W-85W. OTHERWISE...TRADES
REMAIN IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
NOTED BETWEEN 67W-77W AND THE USUAL MAXIMUM OCCURRING IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY...150 NM...OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED OVER THE ISLAND FROM
THE WEST AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE OVER THE
SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 24N78W SW TO A BASE OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS
NEAR 16N89W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE DUE TO THE PRESENCE
OF A TROPICAL WAVE TO THE SOUTH ALONG 72W AND THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED DIFFLUENT DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS EVENING
N OF 18N W OF 70W. WITH THE TROUGH EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE
WEST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
TUESDAY REMAINS IN PLACE PEAKING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 33N66W SW
TO 25N80W THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N60W SW TO
29N69W TO 31N75W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING. TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE FRONT...WHILE A SURFACE RIDGE IS EVIDENT...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 70W-
79W. FARTHER EAST...ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...IS NEARLY STATIONARY EXTENDING FROM 31N30W TO
27N40W TO 26N47W. THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AS
FRACTURED AWAY ANALYZED FROM 25N51W TO 21N60W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGHS.
OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD DURING THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE ATLC E OF 55W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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