[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150542
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SIN JUN 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N28W TO 2N29W MOVING W AT 10 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N
BETWEEN 26W-33W.

TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM
16N61W TO 5N58W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT.  NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
IS NOTED WITH THIS WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 17N67W INTO
VENEZUELA NEAR 8N67W MOVING W AT 15 KT. . NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS WAVE.

...ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W  TO
10N20W. INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM  10N20W
TO 7N28W THEN RESUMES FROM 6N31W TO 1N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 6N-11N E OF 23W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM LOUISIANA TO NE MEXICO...WITH A
DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE WAS
WRAPPING AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE GULF W OF
90W. SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH.   WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL HOLD IN PLACE
AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PRIMARILY GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE
WINDS WITH MAINLY 1-3 FT SEAS...EXCEPT 3-5 FT IN THE NW GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ZONAL UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS
BEGINNING TO BECOME SW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IN THE GULF IS
AFFECTING THE NW CARIBBEAN. A BROAD RIDGE WAS DEVELOPING
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 75W. STRONG CONVECTION
ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...EARLIER CONVECTION
OVER  CUBA HAS DISSIPATED. LARGE AREA OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION COVERS ALL BUT THE FAR NW
CARIBBEAN.  FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADES ALONG WITH 8-12 FT
SEAS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH WINDS UP TO
30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING HOURS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND 4-7 FT SEAS ARE
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...
EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA HAS DISSIPATED. OVERALL
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT AND MON WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLANTIC.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 32N70W TO 23N71W
WITH A FEW ISOLATED  SHOWERS JUST E OF THE TROUGH AXIS.  MAINLY
GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND 3-5 FT SEAS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE SW N ATLC...EXCEPT 1-3 FT SEAS INSIDE THE
BAHAMA BANK.  A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N36W TO 24N52W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW AND MID CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN WHILE THEY MOVE TO THE EAST THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
OTHERWISE RIDGING AND MAINLY MODERATE NE-E WINDS DOMINATE THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
DGS


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