[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 142357
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT JUN 14 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 2N26W TO 10N27W MOVING W AT 10 KT.
THIS LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE IS BEING SUPPRESSED BY VERY STABLE AND
DRY AIR DUE TO THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER TO THE NW. THIS WAVE WILL
LIKELY ACCELERATE TO THE WEST BETWEEN 24-48 HOURS AS IT
APPROACHES 30W AND THE HEART OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE N.
THE WAVE WILL LIKELY BE DIFFICULT TO DISCERN AND TRACK AT THE
SURFACE.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 6N55W TO 15N57W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT.
THIS WAVE WAS MOVED TO THE W OF THE PREVIOUS LOCATION ON THE 12Z
ANALYSIS...AND IS REFLECTED IN A SURGE OF MOISTURE ON TPW
SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS
WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
TO VENEZUELA NEAR 09N65W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE WAS
POSITIONED BASED ON OBSERVATIONS IN THE E CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED
WITH THIS WAVE.

...ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W
TO 09N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
09N21W TO 7N25W THEN RESUMES FROM 5N28W TO 02N40W TO 03N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 25W AND 30W IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE NOTED ALONG 26W/27W.

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE COAST OF
AFRICA FROM 07N TO 10N TO 17W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF EXTENDING
FROM NEAR CEDAR KEY FLORIDA TO 27N91W. THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTED
BY A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
INTERIOR SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF NEAR
29N86W TO 23N92W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SUGGESTING THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE TROUGH MAY BE CUTTING OFF WITH A DEVELOPING
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 23N90W. VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE WAS
WRAPPING AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION OVER THE GULF W OF 91W AND PUSHING TOWARD THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WITH THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION
OCCURRING IN THE TAMPA BAY AREA EXTENDING SW TO NEAR
25N85W...AND WITHIN 45 NM OF A LINE FROM 26N90W TO 25N93W. THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL SLIDE SE OFF THE FLORIDA E
COAST WHILE THE DEVELOPING UPPER CYCLONE SHIFTS WEST. OTHERWISE
WEAK RIDGING IS EXTENDING FROM THE SW N ATLC AT THE SURFACE. THE
RIDGING WILL HOLD IN PLACE AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
PRIMARILY GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS WITH MAINLY 1-3 FT
SEAS...EXCEPT 3-5 FT IN THE NW GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ZONAL UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS
BEGINNING TO BUCKLE AS UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH/CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE GULF IS AFFECTING THE NW
CARIBBEAN. A BROAD RIDGE WAS DEVELOPING DOWNSTREAM OVER THE
CARIBBEAN ALONG 75W. SCATTERED STRONG TSTMS WERE OCCURRING ALONG
THE COAST OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS
OVER WESTERN HONDURAS...GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR. ADDITIONAL
TSTMS ACTIVITY WAS OCCURRING OVER CUBA...WESTERN JAMAICA AND
INTERIOR HISPANIOLA. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WHICH COVERED THE
CARIBBEAN S OF 15N BETWEEN 75W AND 82W HAS DISSIPATED LEAVING A
VAST AREA OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE S OF 16N  EXTENDING TO
70W. OTHERWISE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DOMINATE THE
MAJORITY OF THE BASIN. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADES ALONG
WITH 8-12 FT SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH
WINDS UP TO 30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING THE LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND 4-7 FT
SEAS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...
SCATTERED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE INTERIOR OF HAITI AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE STORMS HAVE WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 30
MINUTES AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING. OVERALL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUN NIGHT AND
MON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED IN
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED NEAR 28N62W EXTENDS A RIDGE
ACROSS THE SW N ATLC THROUGH 27N70W TO NEAR JUPITER FLORIDA. AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 32N71W TO 23N74W IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 28N BETWEEN
65W-70W. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST BETWEEN JUPITER AND VERO BEACH AHEAD OF A
VIGOROUS MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST NW OF THE AREA EXTENDING
FROM THE CAROLINAS TO THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF OF MEXICO.
MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND 3-5 FT SEAS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SW N ATLC...EXCEPT 1-3 FT SEAS INSIDE
THE BAHAMA BANK.

TO THE E...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N35W TO 25N53W WITH A
REINFORCING TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 31N40W TO 29N50W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST LOW AND MID CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING
WITHIN 90 NM EAST OF THE TROUGH. THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
LOSE DEFINITION WHILE THEY MOVE TO THE EAST THROUGH THE NEXT 48
HOURS. OTHERWISE RIDGING AND MAINLY MODERATE NE-E WINDS DOMINATE
THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
COBB


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