[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141751
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUN 14 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1615 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 2N26W TO 10N26W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
THIS LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE IS BEING SUPPRESSED BY VERY STABLE AND
DRY AIR DUE TO THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER TO THE NW. THIS WAVE WILL
LIKELY SPEED UP IN MOVEMENT BETWEEN 24-48 HOURS AS IT APPROACHES
30W WITH ACCELERATION BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE N AND WILL
LIKELY BE DIFFICULT TO DISCERN AND TRACK AT THE SURFACE.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 6N54W TO 14N56W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT.
THIS WAVE HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO TRACK AND WAS MOVED TO THE W OF
THE PREVIOUS LOCATION NEAR 50W BASED ON BUOY OBSERVATIONS AT
41040 NEAR 14N53W...ON THE PRESSURE PATTERN ANALYZED AT 12Z...
AND ON TPW SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED
WITH THIS WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE ANEGADA
PASSAGE AT 18N64W TO VENEZUELA NEAR 09N64W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE IS POSITIONED BASED ON OBSERVATIONS IN THE E CARIBBEAN
ISLANDS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
IS NOTED WITH THIS WAVE.

...ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N16W
TO 15N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
15N19W TO 7N23W THEN RESUMES FROM 5N28W TO 4N49W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 18W AND 26W AND WITHIN 180 NM N OF A LINE FROM 4N28W TO
3N35W.

SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240
NM OF THE COAST OF AFRICA E OF THE PRIME MERIDIAN.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SW GULF S OF 23N ALONG 95W.
OTHER THAN A WIND SHIFT NOTED BY NDBC BUOY 42055 LITTLE SENSIBLE
IMPACT IS OCCURRING FROM THIS TROUGH. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS
IN THE NE AND N CENTRAL GULF EXTENDING FROM JUST E OF PANAMA
CITY TO 28N89W. THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTED BY A VIGOROUS MID-
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE INTERIOR U.S. MID-ATLC
REGION TROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 29N88W TO 25N92W. SHOWER AND
TSTM ACTIVITY HAS RAPIDLY INCREASED DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS FROM 25N TO 28N E OF 92W. THE TROUGHING
WILL SHIFT E THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHERWISE WEAK RIDGING IS
EXTENDING FROM THE SW N ATLC AT THE SURFACE. THE RIDGING WILL
HOLD IN PLACE AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PRIMARILY GENTLE TO
MODERATE E-SE WINDS WITH MAINLY 1-3 FT SEAS...EXCEPT 3-5 FT IN
THE CENTRAL AND NW GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MAINLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE EXPANDED IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE SW
CARIBBEAN S OF 12N W OF 75W UNDER UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WITH A
MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOTED FROM 10N72W TO 15N80W. OTHERWISE
MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DOMINATE THE MAJORITY OF THE
BASIN. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADES ALONG WITH 8-12 FT SEAS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT UP TO 30 KT
NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
HOURS...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND 4-7 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE
THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH DAYTIME HEATING. MOISTURE WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE BY MON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED NEAR 28N60W EXTENDS A RIDGE
ACROSS THE SW N ATLC THROUGH 27N70W TO NEAR JUPITER FLORIDA. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 32N71W TO 22N75W IS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 28N BETWEEN 65W-72W
WHILE A RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS DID NOT SHOW ANY
SUPPORTING SURFACE FEATURE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
DEVELOPING OVER THE NW PORTION E OF FLORIDA AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST NW OF THE AREA EXTENDING FROM THE
CAROLINAS TO THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF OF MEXICO. MAINLY GENTLE
TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND 3-5 FT SEAS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE SW N ATLC...EXCEPT 1-3 FT SEAS INSIDE THE BAHAMAS.

TO THE E...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N35W TO
27N43W WITH A REMNANT FRONTAL TROUGH CONTINUING THROUGH 26N50W
TO 24N52W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT/TROUGH AXIS. A REINFORCING TROUGH IS TO THE W
AS INDICATED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY EXTENDING FROM 32N39W TO
29N50W. THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO LOOSE DEFINITION WHILE
THEY MOVE TO THE E THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. OTHERWISE RIDGING
AND MAINLY MODERATE NE-E WINDS DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL AND E ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LEWITSKY


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