[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141154
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT JUN 14 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W FROM 10N-2N MOVING WEST
10-15 KNOTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE
AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W FROM 12N-4N. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE JUST E OF THE WINDWARD ISLAND EXTENDS FROM 17N63W
TO 11N63W. THE WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUN...THEN MOVE WNW ACROSS THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN MON THROUGH TUE. ABUNDANT AFRICAN DUST FOLLOWS
THIS WAVE. PART OF THIS DUST IS ALREADY AFFECTING THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS AND THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN. AS A RESULT...A VERY DRY
AIR MASS WILL FOLLOW THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE.

...ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO 12N16W TO 7N21W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDS FROM 5N26W TO 3N35W TO
3N45W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-11N E
OF 20W AND FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 25W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS ACROSS THE GULF. THE RIDGE WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY NE THEN A WEAK HIGH PRES CENTER WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NE
GULF AND PERSIST SUN NIGH THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS
AND SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 4 FT ARE NOTED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE WEAK RIDGE.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE E ACROSS THE GULF TODAY AND AMPLIFY.
ABUNDANT MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE DOMINATES MUCH OF THE EASTERN
GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW
ARE NOTED ACROSS THE REGION. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES
NE OF AREA AND BROAD LOW PRES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS RESULTING
IN 20-25 KT TRADES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEAS ARE
BUILDING TO 10-12 FT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE STRONG TRADE
WINDS. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...
A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE REMAINS
LIMITED. COMPUTER MODEL INDICATES INCREASING MOISTURE ON MON
LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WEAK RIDGE FROM 32N60W TO S FLORIDA DOMINATES MOST OF THE WEST
AND CENTRAL ATLC. THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NWD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...LIFTING TO ALONG 27N-28N BY SUN. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM 32N77W TO W CUBA. AN UPPER TROUGH E OF THE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM 32N73W ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS INTO EASTERN
CUBA. ABUNDANT MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS MOST OF THE AREA
W OF 60W. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND
WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO DEEPENS. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 32N35W TO
28N44W THEN CONTINUES AS A TROUGH TO 24N55W. A WELL DEFINED BAND
OF CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT/TROUGH. THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ANOTHER
RIDGE. MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE NOTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
DGS


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