[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140536
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT JUN 14 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24W FROM 10N-2N MOVING WEST
10-15 KNOTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE
AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W FROM 12N-3N. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE JUST E OF THE WINDWARD ISLAND EXTENDS FROM 17N62W
TO 10N62W. THE WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUN...THEN MOVE W NW ACROSS THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN MON THROUGH TUE. ABUNDANT AFRICAN DUST FOLLOWS
THIS WAVE. PART OF THIS DUST IS ALREADY AFFECTING THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS AND THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN. AS A RESULT...A VERY DRY
AIR MASS WILL FOLLOW THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN APPROACHING THE COAST
OF NICARAGUA ALONG 83W S OF 16N EXTENDS FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS
WESTERN PANAMA INTO THE EPAC. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION ARE S OF 10N OVER PANAMA AND SE COSTA RICA. THIS
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INLAND CENTRAL AMERICA LATER TONIGHT AND
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

...ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO 11N16W TO 7N21W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDS FROM 5N26W TO 3N35W TO 4
N45W. SCATTERED MODERATE STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-11N E OF
20W AND FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 25W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SW FLORIDA TO 26N96W. THE RIDGE WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY NE THEN A WEAK HIGH PRES CENTER WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NE
GULF AND PERSIST SUN NIGH THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS
AND SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 4 FT ARE NOTED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE RIDGE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 28N90W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS STARTING TO
DISSIPATE. THIS FEATURE IS THE REFLECTION OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE GULF TODAY AND AMPLIFY. ABUNDANT MID/UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE DOMINATES MUCH OF THE EASTERN GULF REGION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW
ARE NOTED ACROSS THE REGION. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES
NE OF AREA AND BROAD LOW PRES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS RESULTING
IN 20-25 KT TRADES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEAS ARE
BUILDING TO 10-12 FT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE STRONG TRADE
WINDS. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED E OF FLORIDA EXTENDS SW
ACROSS WESTERN CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH A RIDGE DOMINATING THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...
THE SHOWERS EARLIER HAVE DISSIPATED. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND AS MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED. COMPUTER MODEL INDICATES
INCREASING MOISTURE ON MON LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN
CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
RIDGE FROM 32N60W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA DOMINATES MOST OF
THE WEST AND CENTRAL ATLC. THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NWD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LIFTING TO ALONG 27N-28N BY SUN. A MID-
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED E OF FLORIDA AND EXTENDS FROM
31N77W ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS INTO WESTERN CUBA. ABUNDANT
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND COVERS
MOST OF THE AREA W OF 60W. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
DEEPENS. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA NEAR
32N36W TO 27N48W THEN CONTINUES AS A TROUGH TO 21N59W. A WELL
DEFINED BAND OF CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT/TROUGH. THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF ANOTHER RIDGE. MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE NOTED ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC. AN
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 31N19W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
DGS


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net