[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151113
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N31W TO 2N21W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN
28W-32W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG THE WINDWARD ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 17N61W TO
7N61W MOVING W 15 KT.  NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH
THIS WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 17N68W INTO
VENEZUELA NEAR 7N67W MOVING W AT 15 KT. . NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS WAVE.

...ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 15N17W  TO
11N20W. INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM  11N20W
TO 7N30W THEN RESUMES FROM 6N33W TO 1N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS FROM 36W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM LOUISIANA TO NE MEXICO...WITH A
DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF FROM THE FLORIDA
BIG BEND TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE WAS
WRAPPING AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE GULF W OF
90W.  WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL HOLD IN PLACE AND WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT PRIMARILY GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS WITH MAINLY 1-
3 FT SEAS...EXCEPT 3-5 FT IN THE NW GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ZONAL UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS
BEGINNING TO BECOME SW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IN THE GULF IS
AFFECTING THE NW CARIBBEAN. A BROAD RIDGE WAS DEVELOPING
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 75W. EARLIER STRONG
CONVECTION  ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS HAS
WEAKENED. LARGE AREA OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
PREVIOUS CONVECTION COVERS ALL BUT THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN.  FRESH
TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADES ALONG WITH 8-12 FT SEAS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH WINDS UP TO 30 KT NEAR THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS.
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND 4-7 FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE
THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY AND MON WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLANTIC.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 32N69W TO 22N70W
WITH A FEW ISOLATED  SHOWERS JUST E OF THE TROUGH AXIS.  MAINLY
GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND 3-5 FT SEAS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE SW N ATLC...EXCEPT 1-3 FT SEAS INSIDE THE
BAHAMA BANK.  A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N35W TO 25N47W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW AND MID CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN WHILE THEY MOVE TO THE EAST THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
OTHERWISE RIDGING AND MAINLY MODERATE NE-E WINDS DOMINATE THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
DGS


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