[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131116
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND A
GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 73W-75W WITH
WINDS 30-35 KT AND SEAS 9-12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 11N-18N BETWEEN
70W-80W AND S OF 16N BETWEEN 67W-70W WINDS 20-30 KT AND SEAS 8-
10 FT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N21W TO 3N19W. THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTION OF THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A
SAHARAN AIR LAYER OUTBREAK...THUS THE ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
BEING LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE.

A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 8N39W TO 1N39W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 40W-43W.

ANOTHER HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS SE OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 16N57W TO 2N57W MOVING W 15 KT.
THE WAVE IS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SAHARAN DUST LAYER
OUTBREAK...THUS LACK OF CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN AND ACROSS PANAMA WITH AXIS
FROM 13N81W TO 4N81W MOVING W 15 KT.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE COAST NEAR 9N13W
TO 9N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
6N21W TO 4N38W. IT THEN RESUMES WEST OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR
4N41W TO 3N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 6N-10N E OF
16W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF AND
PROVIDES NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF. DRY AIR ACROSS THE GULF WITH STABLE
CONDITIONS. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA TO S TEXAS PROVIDING SE WIND FLOW OF 5-10 KT TO MOST OF
THE AREA. RIDGING AND MOSTLY RETURN FLOW WILL PREVAIL DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH
BASE EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
IS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN. OTHERWISE...A DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER. TRADES OF 15 KT ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN OUTSIDE THE AREA DISCUSSED IN
SPECIAL FEATURES. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN BY SAT AFTERNOON.

...HISPANIOLA...
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO INFLUENCED BY A DRY AIRMASS TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THE EARLIER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OFF THE COAST
OF S AND CENTRAL FLORIDA HAVE DISSIPATED. OTHERWISE...THE SW
NORTH ATLC REMAINS FAIRLY TRANQUIL DUE TO SURFACE RIDGING
EXTENDING FROM 32N56W TO 26N60W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
FARTHER EAST...A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS A PORTION OF THE
CENTRAL ATLC WITH ASSOCIATED DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT FROM
32N40W TO 24N54W. OTHERWISE SURFACE HIGH PRES WITH AXIS FROM
32N27W TO 25N41W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
DGS


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