[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 131805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...

NORTHEAST TO EAST GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS 9 TO 13 FEET
FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 72W AND 75W. EXPECT EAST WINDS 20 TO 30
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 18N
BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 68W AND
70W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10
FEET FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THAT IS FROM 10N TO 18N
BETWEEN 67W AND 82W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W/23W FROM 10N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NEARBY ITCZ PRECIPITATION.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W/41W FROM 8N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 1N TO 7N BETWEEN
39W AND 44W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NEARBY ITCZ
PRECIPITATION.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 44W/45W FROM 5N SOUTHWARD. THE TROUGH
SHOWED UP IN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER WIND DATA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS
ARE FROM 1N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 43W AND 48W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W FROM 15N SOUTHWARD
INTO VENEZUELA...GUYANA...AND BRAZIL...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 48W AND 60W IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF FRENCH GUIANA...SURINAME...AND GUYANA.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA ALONG 81W/82W FROM 13N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WEST 15 KNOTS. THE
WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE MONSOON TROUGH...WHICH IS
ALONG 9N/10N FROM 83W BEYOND 90W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IS FROM 3N TO 12N
BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND 87W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 8N20W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 5N24W 3N38W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS THAT ARE FROM 3N TO THE
COAST OF AFRICA BETWEEN 2W AND 5W...WITHIN 250 NM TO THE NORTH
OF 5N10W 3N20W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 35W...AND FROM 3N TO 7N
BETWEEN 48W AND 60W IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND INTERIOR SECTIONS
OF FRENCH GUIANA...SURINAME...AND GUYANA.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COASTAL WATERS OF THE U.S.A. EAST COAST...
ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS...ACROSS CUBA...INTO THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A NEW MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE LARGER-SCALE
TROUGH...NEAR THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES FROM TEXAS TO
ALABAMA. A COLD FRONT IS INLAND...PASSING THROUGH LOUISIANA INTO
TEXAS. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE GULF COAST PLAINS OF
MISSISSIPPI...TO LOUISIANA...AND THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS.
LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 60W WESTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 28N TO 32N
INLAND BETWEEN 85W IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND 95W ALONG THE
UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG ALSO IS IN
FLORIDA FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN 80W AND 82W. SCATTERED MODERATE
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 23N TO 24N BETWEEN 86W AND 88W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
28N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
20N IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS FROM 70W WESTWARD.
THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
13/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.25 IN
NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS.

A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N55W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO 27N66W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND SOUTH
FLORIDA TO 27N83W...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE
SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN IS FLAT AND WEAK AT THE PRESENT TIME.
THE 1012 MB ISOBAR PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO.
THE 1016 MB ISOBAR REACHES FLORIDA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
ICAO STATIONS...KBQX...KEIR...AND KIKT. THE VISIBILITY HAS BEEN
3 MILES OR LESS FOR THE LAST FEW OBSERVATIONS AT ICAO STATION
KVOA IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS...IN WESLACO
IN THE LOWER VALLEY...AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN KINGSVILLE...
IN PORT LAVACA AND BAY CITY. RAINSHOWERS ARE BEING REPORTED IN
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO ALONG 28N TO 32N INLAND BETWEEN 85W IN THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND 95W ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG ALSO IS IN FLORIDA FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN
80W AND 82W. SCATTERED MODERATE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 23N
TO 24N BETWEEN 86W AND 88W. RAIN IS BEING REPORTED IN
BROOKSVILLE AND IN THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA DURING THE LAST
FEW OBSERVATIONS.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND HISPANIOLA...

A LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COASTAL WATERS OF THE U.S.A. EAST COAST...
ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS...ACROSS CUBA...INTO THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 60W WESTWARD.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO AND LA ROMANA. FEW LOW LEVEL
AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVER PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS COVER SANTIAGO.
FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST
WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...AS A TROUGH TRAVERSES THE
AREA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW WILL SPAN THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS
THAT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH A
NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
13/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.26 IN
TRINIDAD. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...IN AREAS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
IN SURFACE TRADE WIND FLOW.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N/10N FROM 83W BEYOND 90W IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG IS FROM 3N TO 12N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND 87W IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...THE 12-HOUR FORECAST OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO
THE WEST OF 85W...INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 29N20W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
22N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 30W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N41W TO
27N48W TO 17N51W AND 12N50W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N38W
TO 31N40W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N40W TO 28N47W
AND 23N55W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N37W 26N50W 22N59W 20N63W 19N69W.

ONE SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N55W TO 22N61W...TO 14N64W IN
THE EASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N55W TO 27N66W...ACROSS
THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA TO 27N83W...INTO THE WEST
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN IS FLAT AND
WEAK AT THE PRESENT TIME. THE 1012 MB ISOBAR PASSES THROUGH
CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO. THE 1016 MB ISOBAR REACHES FLORIDA
FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

A THIRD SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N28W TO 24N37W TO
17N52W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...THE 12-HOUR FORECAST OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE
SOUTH OF 22N BETWEEN 70W AND 74W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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